Ruling JMM retains Jharkhand and the BJP-led Mahayuti , Maharashtra, indicating anti-incumbency is not at play right now 

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), alongside its allies, achieved significant electoral victory in Maharashtra while the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) fought its way to victory in Jharkhand despite many handicaps proving once again that it is difficult to read the voters’ mind. In Maharashtra, the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition, including factions of the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), secured a decisive majority, capitalising on effective consolidation of OBC votes and strategic welfare schemes like direct cash transfers for women. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and grassroots outreach programmes further bolstered their appeal. Meanwhile, in Jharkhand, the BJP failed to wrest power from the ruling alliance of JMM. It could not emphasise governance issues and leverage dissatisfaction with the Hemant Soren-led coalition. The JMM’s success was amplified by strong voter mobilisation in tribal areas and development-focused messaging. In Maharashtra, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and the original NCP, struggled with internal divisions and a lack of clarity on critical issues such as reservations for the Maratha community.

In Jharkhand, the BJP’s limited reach and failure to address rural distress effectively diminished its appeal. The electoral outcome in Maharashtra underlines the BJP’s ability to adapt and dominate state politics. All this while the Opposition struggled to regain voter trust. The NDA led by the BJP, achieved notable success in Maharashtra due to a combination of strategic alliances, effective voter outreach and targeted welfare initiatives. In Maharashtra, the BJP presented itself as a cohesive force with Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) group, ensuring a consolidated voter base. The party’s focus on OBC consolidation, welfare schemes such as direct cash transfers for women, and the influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership resonated strongly with voters. But it was different story in Jharkhand where the BJP could not harness dissatisfaction with the governance of the Hemant Soren-led coalition and failed to highlight local issues like unemployment and tribal welfare and banked more on its national agenda. The JMM also benefited from a grassroots campaign that addressed tribal and rural voter concerns, further solidifying its position. Similarly, in Maharashtra the opposition failed to effectively capitalise on the BJP’s perceived shortcomings, such as economic challenges and allegations of governance lapses. In Maharashtra, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition, comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, struggled with internal divisions and inconsistent messaging, particularly on sensitive issues like Maratha reservations. In Jharkhand, JMM and Congress were able to counter the BJP’s narrative and present a compelling vision for change. These results indeed underscore the innate acumen of the voters to vote on the issues they deem important.