Power demand in winter months in Delhi is expected to follow the record-breaking summer’s trend.  During summer 2024, the Delhi reached an unprecedented peak power demand of 8656 MW, BSES in a press statement said here on Thursday

Forecasts from SLDC (State Load Dispatch Centre) indicate that Delhi’s peak power demand this winter could surpass 6300 MW, setting a new seasonal high. Last winter, the peak hit 5816 MW, marking the highest level recorded in the national capital. Within the BRPL and BYPL areas, winter peaks previously hit 2529 MW and 1210 MW, respectively, this winter, they are projected to exceed 2600 MW for BRPL and 1240 MW for BYPL.

To deliver reliable power year-round, BSES discoms are focusing on strategic power planning, precise demand forecasting, and maintaining a robust distribution network. These measures are set to ensure consistent power availability for more than 50 lakh consumers covering two crore residents in South, West, East and Central Delhi during the coming winter months.

To maintain a reliable and eco-friendly supply,, BSES has secured over 2000 MW of renewable energy .This green power mix includes  840 MW of solar power, 546 MW of hydro power, 500 MW of wind energy, 40 MW of waste-to-energy, and over 180 MW from rooftop solar installations across Delhi’s neighborhoods, sources said.

With this diverse mix, up to 53% of BSES’ peak winter power demand—expected to exceed 3900 MW—will be met through green energy.

To ensure consistent power availability, BSES discoms are leveraging mechanisms like “Banking,” “Power Exchange,” and maintaining “Spinning Reserves.” Sif demand unexpectedly spikes, BSES is prepared to secure short-term power from the exchange. Advanced load forecasting will also enhances reliability by ensuring demand is predicted with precision.

To maximize efficiency, BSES discoms will bank surplus power with states in need of extra energy during winter. This banked power will flow back to Delhi in the high-demand summer months.

BRPL plans to bank up to 210 MW, while BYPL aims to bank up to 575 MW, supporting states like Uttarakhand, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Kerala, which reciprocated with power support during Delhi’s peak summer months.

Reliable power supply hinges on accurate demand (load) forecasting performed on multiple time scales,  (i) Day-ahead in 96 time-slots, (ii) Intra-day and (iii) Medium term (from a fortnight to one year outlook). Key, weather factors including Temperature, Rainfall, Cloud Cover, Wind Speed& Direction and Humidity are integrated, along with variable like holidays and unexpected disruptions..

BSES uses a combination of sophisticated advanced statistical forecasting models using complex algorithms, combined with state-of-the-art and Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning tools for precise load forecasting.

"Domain expertise provided by IMD-POSCO further enhances this system, creating accurate forecasting models that save both time and costs.

This accurate day ahead, intra-day and medium term demand forecasting is vital for optimal and cost effective planning in ensuring reliable power supply to consumers at an optimal cost. BSES actively leverages Real Time Market, on the Power Exchange. in which aids in balancing RE power and maintaining grid stability.