The killing of Hamas leader threatens to derail any hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza further complicating efforts for peace in the region

Israel seems to have eliminated Hamas leader Haniyeh, using an airborne guided projectile in an early morning attack. Haniyeh was in Iran for the Iranian president’s swearing-in ceremony as a state guest and was staying in one of the residences for veterans. The events in the Middle East are shaping dangerously, the things as they are turning out to be, it's not out of the scope of imagination that soon Iran may be part of a major regional conflict.

We have already seen that a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel is underway in Lebanon. However, Israel has still not taken responsibility for the strike. Israel has been accusing Iran of harbouring Hamas leaders like Haniyeh and has openly vowed to kill them. Israel not taking responsibility for the attack shows that it does not want a direct confirmation with Iran right now. It remains to be seen how things play out, there is also a section in Israel that is suspicious of Iran's state media’s claim that Haniyeh has even been killed.

Having said that there are little or no takers of the version that Israel is not responsible for the killing of Hamas's political leader. Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa has condemned the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and termed it a violation of the entire international rule of law. The act is a grave violation of Iran’s sovereignty and the supposed security bubble of the Iranian capital. This is likely to have far-reaching consequences in the short and the long term. Haniyeh, normally based in Qatar, had been the face of international diplomacy for Hamas. He had been an important part of internationally brokered indirect talks on reaching a ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave. This killing appears to set back chances of any imminent ceasefire agreement in the 10-month-old war in Gaza and Lebanon.

Vowing to retaliate, Iran declared three days of national mourning. Iran has blamed the U.S. for providing Israel with the missiles that have been fired, and hence holding it directly responsible. The US itself has accepted that the risk of escalation is certainly up right now.

The killing of Haniyeh has made the task of de-escalation, deterrence and dissuasion towards war, which is the goal of the UN and the international community, much more complicated. It has given a reason for those who want things to escalate on both sides to scuttle chances of peace and also provided them with the fodder to fuel further attacks on each other with impunity.

The immediate consequences of this escalation, Netanyahu will get support from the far right in Israel and he may push for attacks deeper into Lebanon. Hezbollah will find legitimacy in taking on any possible target in Israel, civil or military. Iran would find it convenient to directly use some of its missiles against Israel and the yardstick to judge its effectiveness would be the number of civilians killed. The Houthis will attack commercial ships in the Red Sea even more, leading to loss of business and livelihood across the world. Palestinians would cry on the streets for lack of food and medicine even more, but like always would only get lip service.

Oil prices will go up and some people will make even more money.

More arms would be sold and better technology would be used to kill more people in less time. More and more areas may become dangerous even for the media. Schools and hospitals may be targeted even more since all the terrorists are hiding there only. In the US leaders would keep blaming each other for the escalation with each side doing what is required to be done to get votes. UN is likely to look even more helpless in the days to come.

Apart from this humanity would be disgraced for it does not feel ashamed of any act of inhuman violent behaviour anymore. Aircraft carriers from the US will be deployed to safeguard the territorial integrity of Israel. There will be calls for people to join hands in the name of religion, and they will, only humanity will be divided and more people will die.

Some people in India may find this killing of Haniyeh a great act of bravery, and they may even ask the political hierarchy to take lessons or even replicate this kind of attack.

Little do they realise that Israel has been fighting for existence, and are not at peace with themselves, peace has eluded them since their existence. However, we as a country are at peace and no one can dare challenge our existence, and hence we should never think of acting whimsically.

(The writer is expert on geopolitics and international Affairs. The views expressed are personal)