G20 Summit’s toned-down declarations on Ukraine, climate finance and West Asia

The recently concluded G20 summit in Brazil, could well serve as an early preview in what could be the realignment of global forces in the next year and beyond with the new incoming President of the USA. First, some major optics moments, such as the family picture for G20 leaders, which didn’t have US President (of course some others were missing too). Second, winding down of several commitments from the Delhi declaration to just passing mention regarding the situation in Ukraine and climate finance. Third, the entire G20 summit is being riddled with speculation on whether the multilateral platform would survive a Trump presidency, and if so, with what effectiveness.

The view in Washington DC is similar, especially in the government circles. Every government official, some of whom may have served under Trump’s first presidency, is well aware of  his working ways. The incoming administration has an additional extra non government supervisor, the world’s richest person Elon Musk, who has his own unique style of functioning. Many in DC, understand that their, managers have one foot out of the door, and things would change, at least for the next four years post the inauguration on January 20. Trump’s foreign policy outlook, if the past presidency is any reference, is likely to be transactional. Trump can parallel have public shouting matches and back door negotiations with friends and foes.  He has already talked about ensuring long lasting peace in Ukraine, at a time, when under President Biden’s patronage, US missiles are landing in Russian territory. Similarly, the proposal to impose higher tariffs on Chinese products, may sound sweet to many, but knowing the sharp businessman Trump is, he may well cut a sweet deal with President Xi Jinping, which could potentially be of benefit to both nations. On India, Trump has called it out to be the tariff king and likely to make a case for imposing tariffs in reciprocal approach, for sectors where he thinks, US exports are  getting impacted. India’s chief economic advisor has already sounded out a cautionary note on incoming Trump presidency. He has been quoted as saying that with Trump administration’s views on trade and tariffs, plus a slowing global economy, India may have to look beyond exports as the primary drivers of growth. India has taken several steps such as providing incentives for manufacturing in various sectors, but except for  mobile phones, the growth has been slow. It would not be hard to assume that the sluggish offtake for India for manufacturing in sectors it has recently provided incentives, may well be on the slow lane for some years. What can however, change the game would be the transactional style Mr Trump has, which is well known not just to senior India ministers and bureaucrats but the PM Modi himself (who is known to share a warm relationship with trump).

Coming back to G20, while Delhi declarations had significant paragraphs on India promoted “not an era of war for Ukraine, the Rio De Janeiro declaration just mentioned, “ Specifically concerning the war in Ukraine, while recalling our discussions in New Delhi, we highlight the human suffering and negative added impacts of the war with regard to global food and energy security, supply chains, macro-financial stability, inflation and growth.” Clearly the world leaders didn’t want to come out with any peace formulas, in face of President Trump assuming office next year. Similarly, the paragraph on West Asia focused on humanitarian aid, instead of taking either party’s side. It read “ While expressing our deep concern about the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the escalation in Lebanon, we emphasize the urgent need to expand the flow of humanitarian assistance and to reinforce the protection of civilians and demand the lifting of all barriers to the provision of humanitarian assistance at scale.”

(The writer is a policy analyst; views are personal)