The electoral setbacks have exposed fractures within the INDIA alliance while the BJP has emerged stronger after the recently held state elections
The aftermath of the recent election results in Maharashtra and Jharkhand has led to cracks within the Opposition coalition known as the INDIA alliance. Following these disappointing results, some partners in the INDIA bloc, such as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Trinamool Congress, are focusing on their agendas and show little interest in collaborating for the current winter session of Parliament. AAP chief Kejriwal has announced that his party will go solo in Delhi Assembly polls, ruling out tie-up with Congress. The INDIA bloc hoped to consolidate anti-BJP votes in the capital.
Still, Kejriwal’s announcement signals a potential fracture in unity. Additionally, it seems unlikely that the Uddhav Thackeray coalition will work together in the upcoming civic election. Consequently, the immediate concern for these partners is to unite and collaborate effectively. However, achieving this is proving to be quite challenging.
Every political party makes mistakes, but the successful ones learn and improve. The INDIA bloc aimed to defeat the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls, ultimately allowing the BJP to form a government with support from the JD(U) and the Telugu Desam Party. The Assembly polls lacked a joint strategy.Two key points stand out in the recent elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. First is the significant victory of the BJP-led NDA in Maharashtra.
Second is the ease with which Hemant Soren retained his position in Jharkhand despite being jailed on allegations of corruption.Another important question is whether the Congress, NCP and the Uddhav faction of the Shiv Sena misinterpreted the signals on the ground. Did the BJP make errors in Jharkhand? The recent results reveal missed growth opportunities.It could have performed better if Congress had learned from past experiences and made necessary adjustments. Unlike the Pachmarhi or Shimla conclaves, there has been a lack of post-election analysis.
The Grand Old Party is entirely under the control of Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition, and his chosen associates. Rahul worked hard and campaigned, but the party could not deliver. The results suggest they have yet to learn from the recent Haryana Assembly elections, such as relying heavily on one leader, ignoring the others, and the wrong distribution of tickets despite being in a winning position.
The most crucial aspect the Congress Party, NCP and the Uddhav fsction of Shiv Sena must address is the narrative. For the Congress, the focus on caste issues, defending the Constitution, and making personal attacks on the Prime Minister has not resonated with the voters. This disconnect is a clear sign that the party needs to reevaluate its strategy and focus on issues that truly matter to the electorate, such as the bread and butter issues.
It is a pressing concern that needs alignment. Even earlier, Rahul Gandhi’s Gandhi’s attack on Savarkar did not garner any support for Congress; instead, it created friction between the Shiv Sena, which idolised Savarkar and Congress. These parties also did not realise the political impact of the BJP’s parent organisation, RSS, which worked for the party’s success.
Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar must feel disheartened after losing his party and the election to his nephew, Ajit Pawar, whom he groomed. The warning signs became clear when Ajit joined the BJP, betraying his uncle to help form the government. The situation worsened when the Election Commission recognised Ajit’s faction as the real Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), despite Sharad Pawar having founded and led it to power multiple times.
This decision severely undermined Pawar,So must Uddhav Thackeray, son of Shivsena founder Bal Thackeray, who succeeded his father, lost the party and elections to his rebel Eknath Shinde, who helped BJP form the government in Maharashtra in a coalition. Both must introspect about what led to their loss of popularity.
On the other hand, JMM, a partner in the INDIA bloc, has demonstrated how to win despite numerous challenges. JMM Chief Minister Hemant Soren and his wife, Kalpana, faced several hardships, including a jail sentence for Soren. The results of the bye-elections after the Assembly polls show that the BJP is not invincible.
Elections in India happen almost continuously in various states, which means the election season never truly ends. The next significant event will be the Rajya Sabha elections for six seats on December 20. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to win five of these six seats. At the same time, the Trinamool Congress is likely to secure one. If this prediction holds, the NDA will gain a majority in the Upper House, which could weaken the Congress Party’s position in Parliament. There are currently eight vacancies: four in the nomination category and four in Jammu and Kashmir.Elections around the world highlight both victories and defeats. Each election offers valuable lessons regarding the successes and mistakes of the candidates and parties involved. These outcomes are not exclusively driven by generational change, as change is a constant process. Future generations must strive to advance their party. Ultimately, the true winner is the one who learns from their mistakes swiftly. Winners should avoid becoming complacent, while those who lose must stay motivated.
(The writer is a popular columnist; views are personal)
