Calling China a bully and seeking support from the US is likely to further strain relations with Beijing
Earlier this month former Army Chief Gen Naravane at a literary festival in Ajmer called China India’s primary threat adding confrontation along the LAC was a good thing as it exposed this ground reality that Delhi was shy to admit. Last week EAM S Jaishankar and Defence Secretary Giridhar Armane called a spade a spade which will infuriate Beijing.
In 1998 India gave China as the reason for carrying out nuclear tests which annoyed the Chinese so much that then foreign minister Jaswant Singh had to travel to Beijing to “untie the knot”. I was witness to the repair exercise in Beijing even as our Army was retaking Tololing Heights, Kargil. Singh had to say that China was not a threat. Sometime later than defence minister George Fernades called China the number one threat though it was misreported as the “No. 1 enemy”. This caused a diplomatic furore as China is acutely sensitive to being seen as or worse a threat by any country.
The government hopes to secure full disengagement of Chinese intrusions diplomatically though the gloves came off last week in February. EAM S Jaishankar speaking at the Raisina dialogue said that China should not be allowed to play mind -games to counter which India must use other means (implying US help) to seek better equilibrium. His comments came a day after Armane at the INDUS-X FORUM in Delhi called Beijing a bully adding “We expect our friend US will be there in case we need their support”. Not since 1962 have we sought US military support. Calling China a bully will incense China.
US help so far is high-tech military equipment worth USD 20bn and another USD in the pipeline. During the PLA incursions in Ladakh and later in Tawang, the US provided critical real-time intelligence, and high altitude equipment for India’s counter deployment. Whether combat contingencies on LAC and US help; and India’s assistance to the US in a Taiwan conflict have been discussed is not known though boots on the ground are unlikely. In 1962 Jawaharlal Nehru sought military assistance from President John Kennedy when Se La and Bomdi La had fallen. 12 squadrons of fighters manned by US pilots, and two squadrons of B47s to take out PLA bases in Tibet were sought. Nehru wrote: “Chinese invasion threatened the survival of India. We are confident that your great country will help us in our fight”. Armane’s plea indicated a “strong resolve that we will support each other in face of common threat”. This brings the centre-stage question of US reliability as a partner given India’s historical experience of US sanctions/embargos. It recalls that when Delhi signed a contract with the UK for Hawk trainer aircraft, a clause was inserted that there would be no US parts in the aircraft. The US similarly questions India’s reliability given its close ties with the USSR/Russia and strategic autonomy. At the Munich Security Conference last month Jaishankar was asked whether the US is happy and comfortable with India doing whatever it wanted whenever it wanted. His reply: “India is smart enough to exercise multiple choices”.
Jaishankar says that China has broken protocols and faith which have violated a peaceful and tranquil border that is essential for normal bilateral relations whereas China’s line is that border issues and bilateral relations are two separate issues. Its spokesperson reminds India ad nauseum that the border problem “is leftover from history and not whole of China-India relations” lately adding “It is unwise and inappropriate for the Indian side to insist on linking border with bilateral relations”.
Two video clips reflect how seriously and diligently China diplomacy is being pursued. The first video shows Prime Minister Modi rising from his dining table accompanied by an interpreter during the Bali G20 summit, walking up to President Xi Jinping and engaging in conversation without his two shadow aides, NSA Ajit Doval and Jaishankar.
This video was soon blanked out. The other video is more recent at the Munich Security Conference where Foreign Minister Wang Yi is speaking and Jaishankar is in the audience. As soon as Wang finishes, Jaishankar walks up to him for a ‘chance encounter’ and conversation. Neither side has reported the contents of the conversation. Indian aim is to keep dialogue and diplomacy alive even if the Chinese have closed the door to further demilitarisation in Depsang and Demchok, two key launchpads for offensive operations by India. Jaishankar has not yielded about seeking ‘equilibrium’ in bilateral relations even as successive Army Chiefs have sought restoration of the status quo ante April 2020. He is buying time until the elections ensuring the word ‘China’ does not figure during the election campaign.
The Chinese fired the last salvo during the Raisina Dialogue last month when Jaishankar said that the biggest opponent to Security Council reforms is not a Western country alluding to China. Its spokesperson Mao Ning retorted, “Reform should benefit all member states rather than serving selfish interests of a few”. That puts paid to India’s prospects for reforms at the UN. The 1988 modus vivendi has expired. China’s continued coercive behaviour is increasing. Jaishankar proudly talks of India’s swift counter-deployment along LAC which is tantamount to closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Unless India substantially enhances deterrence vis a vis China—the military modernization budget in real terms is less than the previous year's—Beijing will continue to bully Delhi.
(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and a founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. Views are personal)
