The spectre of a ‘selected’ Government looms large as the discredited PML-N and PPP join hands, perpetuating the charade of democracy in Pakistan

Imran Khan led PakistanTehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) had witnessed a forced exodus of its leadership, disallowance of the party name/flag, and even the incarceration of Imran Khan himself, yet it defied pressures and manipulations to emerge as the single largest cobbling of affiliated ‘Independents’. Nawaz Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and Bilawal Bhutto-led Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) may have had a free run and indirect support from the Pakistani ‘establishment’ (Military) in the National Elections, yet they fared dismally. However, the patent and shadowy project of ‘selecting’ (as opposed to ‘electing’) a Government in Pakistan is far from over – as the thoroughly discredited and poorly performing PML-N and PPP will eventually join hands yet again, to form the Government. The four Generals across the cantonment township of Rawalpindi have ‘selected’ (or rather ‘denied) a force, and so it will be, and the charade of democracy continues in Pakistan. As if on cue, the Supreme Court has strongly disposed of a plea that had sought nullification of the General Elections results owing to what the petitioner (a court-martialed Brigadier, who may have had his axe with the Pakistani Military) called out as rigging, fraud and misconduct, therefore beseeching the courts to hold forces that be, accountable for undermining Pakistani democracy!

While PML-N and PPP may be privately breathing a collective sigh of relief in the short term for having secured a ‘selected’ victory via the Pakistani Military, it is only a reprieve, as the road ahead will make them even more unpopular. For starters, the new Pakistani coalition of the (un)willing is not a matter of choice, but exigency and compulsion, as they will make odd bedfellows from day one – the conflict of interest and fiefdoms, is only natural. Secondly, they will be beholden and essentially tied to the ‘redlines’ on various issues, as drawn by the assertive Generals, curbing any notions of independence by the civilian Government. This essentially means that the preferred positions of the Pakistan Army on national matters will persist – while it will entail taking on the Pakistan-facing terror groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), harmonizing relations with the United States of America, downplaying sectarian tensions etc., it could conversely lead to reasserting tensions with the historical enemy across Line-of-Control or India, as a means to valourise and legitimise the role and relevance of the Pakistani Military, in the public imagination. The latter instinct is where the risk for Delhi emanates, as a deliberately calibrated escalation of tensions and ratcheting (enough to keep citizenry mesmerised but not enough to lead to military action) will re-dominate the Indo-Pak narrative.

Adding to the woes of the incoming and unpopular coalition (beyond issues of seceded control to the Military, dealing with bloody terrorism and fractured relations with the neighbourhood and ‘West’) is the frightening news of ‘unsustainable’ debt levels, that will necessitate tightening fiscal means and reduced spending on social services.

Already reeling under unprecedented inflation and empty coffers – the ability to offer any perceptible ‘relief’ to the beleaguered citizenry is non-existent, and instead, the situation will warrant more unpopular moves to tide over the crisis.

All the while, if the incoming coalition succumbs to public pressure and collapses, the Military General would have insulated themselves from the blame, as they are ostensibly not running the ‘Government’ – for the Military, bringing back Imran Khan or any other form of alternative national Government is not off the menu as it would have no qualms to restitch alliances with forces that it had spurned earlier e.g., The Pakistan Military had bumped-off PML-N and ‘selected’ PTI in 2018, and brazenly done the exact reverse in 2024!

A damaging report by an Islamabad based thinktank i.e., Tabadlab, captures the severity of the Pakistani crisis as it notes in its report ‘A raging fire: Pakistan’s debt crisis’ where it calculates Islamabad’s debt and liabilities to be at a staggering $271.2 billion! Despite scraping the bottom of the barrel for survival, it stares at an estimated $49.5 billion in debt maturities, with 30% of the same being interests. Complying with the terms of the lenders (both past and future) will have its debilitating loss of face, national pride, and consequential social and political implications.

Imran Khan will not make it any easier for the incoming Government by excoriating all their moves, arousing jingoism, and playing the populist card – unless he is somehow bludgeoned into political irrelevance.

Sadly, the latter is not unimaginable in the Pakistani narrative, as the Pakistani Military is known for taking unconventional steps. The topical arrangement for the incoming Government will possibly be the most unpopular ever, surpassing even the coup d’état led dispensations of Generals Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq and Pervez Musharaf, who too were seen as premature saviours by the corrupt politicians. Tolerance of dissent (be it political from the likes of PTI or social demands for easing livelihood) isn’t expected to be generous, as those aren’t viable options to pander to.

The only positive outcome could be the de facto diminishment of the religious forces, as they have simply outlived their utility for the Pakistani Military, and are rebounding on the same, in a deadly manner. Nonetheless, an unforgiving prospect awaits the new Pakistani Government.

(The writer, a military veteran, is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry. The views expressed are personal)