A recent opinion poll conducted by the India Today Group (Mood of the Nation Survey) has put again the BJD Supremo and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik at the top of the popular Chief Ministers list. In the top five category, Patnaik (with 61.3% score) is followed by Congress Chief Minister of Chhatisgarh Bhupesh Baghel (59.1%), Aam Aadmi Party Chief Minister of Delhi Arvind Kejriwal (57.7%), BJP Chief Minister of Gujarat Bhupendrabhai Patel (55.3%) and BJP Chief Minister of Assam Himanta Biswasharma (49.2%).
However, the survey has shown a marginal decline in the popularity-rating of Patnaik from 73.2 % of 2022 to 61.3 % now. The survey was taken from the citizens living in their respective home States.
In the context of Odisha, the survey trend is significant as the general election to the Assembly is knocking at the door.
The high popularity of Patnaik is an indication that the BJD is electorally more acceptable among the people of the State than the Opposition. The marginal decline in the popularity of Patnaik might be due to false propaganda by the Opposition and the anti-incumbency of a few sitting BJD MLAs. The BJD leaders shall surely analyse and take adequate urgent measures to restore the last highest popularity score of their leader.
To expedite the development process in the State in the election year and to get the blessings of the people, the Chief Minister of Odisha has been using innovative ways. On the instruction of the Chief Minister, his Private Secretary and State’s 5T Secretary VK Pandian has been visiting field and listening to the long-standing developmental grievances of the people to be solved immediately by the Chief Minister. This approach has been popularising the Chief Minister among the rural masses, especially among the women, who come to the local grievance- camps in large numbers as new development-stakeholders. However, some opposition leaders are criticizing the active CMO- strategy for political reasons and are seen spreading false-propaganda. It is said that the Prime Minister is also using a triple- engine administrative set-up to expedite the welfare and security of the nation which comprises the regular administrative machinery, the PMO and the office of the national security advisor.
How is Opposition currently placed in Odisha?
The State Congress is yet to evolve its plan to achieve the electoral score above the last performance level of 16% vote share, one Lok Sabha seat and nine Assembly seats. It has one trump card to rely upon which is former Congress president and the popular MP Rahul Gandhi. The State unit is heard of planning to invite Rahul to kick-start the election process and then again invite him later at the time of election.
However, the State unit has the main task of forming an effective team finalising its alliance and its Assembly and Lok Sabha seats and candidates, crafting its manifesto, building campaigns, settling suspension issue and inducting new leaders and so on.
It was complained by some State Congress leaders that senior leaders of Odisha were ignored by the party’s High- Command during the allotment of seats in the CWC( Congress Working Committee). Only former MP Bhakta Charan Das has got a seat in the CWC. But instead of putting the blame on the top leaders , the Odisha leaders should evaluate their own performance in the national context. If the State leaders fail to perform electorally in the State how would the Central leaders give space to them instead of allotting the limited space to the leaders of the electorally performing States?
What about State BJP?
The general situation of the State BJP is no different from that of the Congress in Odisha though it is in the rising graph. No leader from Odisha has found a place in the top decision- making body of the BJP i.e. the BJP Parliamentary Board. Without serious electoral and political performance in the State, the Central leaders of the cadre-based party BJP would not offer leaders of Odisha a berth in the top -body.
As election is nearing, the new BJP State president Manmohan Samal is trying to move fast. He took charge in March 2023 but his State committee was only approved by the High Command in August 2023. He has huge task of forming district and Mandal- committees, settling groupism issues, finalising candidates and election strategy.
The State BJP has already made a historical blunder by not actively contesting the last Panchayat election. It has to also finalise the CM face issue, whether to go to the poll with Dharmendra Pradhan or Aparajita Sarangi or any other as the Chief Ministerial face or go without a face.
However, to compensate the low organizational strength issue, the BJP is hoping to gain electorally from four short-cut plans such as to shift the falling vote share of the Congress towards it, create propaganda war against the BJD and its Government, induct the ticket- denied dissidents from the BJD and cash in on the Modi-wave. It has to be seen how the Congress and the BJD counters the plan of the BJP.
In last by-election, the BJP used divisive electoral narratives such as local vs. outsider, male vs. female, daughter vs. daughter-in-law and so on. Now the Opposition is using a divisive narrative such as public servants vs. people’s representatives, Odia vs. non-Odia civil servants, local vs. outsider businessmen, people with so called Odia-pride vs general Odias , men vs women and so on.
In this situation, the BJD is much ahead of the Opposition in the forthcoming Assembly elections due to the popularity of the Chief Minister. The organizational strength of the BJD which is regularly upgraded by the party’s organisation secretary MLA Pranab Prakash Das too is unmatched. The State Government's development and welfare programmes, the Mission Shakti programme, the mobile CMO- programme and the 5T governance reform have added to the strength of the BJD.
