The elevation of son-in-law of Uttar Pradesh, Mohan Yadav, a three-term MLA, as chief minister of Madhya Pradesh could not have come at a worse time than this for the Samajwadi Party, which is struggling to retain its caste-based vote bank among the Other Backward Classes.

Mohan Yadav has opened a third front for the SP, which is already facing the twin challenges of Hindutva and ‘Labharthi’ (welfarism) from the Bharatiya Janata Party.

“Samajwadi Party president nursing national ambitions will now have to focus more on Uttar Pradesh for keeping his communities’ flock together and guard against poaching attempts by the BJP,” said a political analyst.

The SP, since its inception in October 1992, has solely depended on past prejudices based on caste and religion for consolidating its OBC-Muslim vote bank. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has punched a big hole in caste identity politics of the SP by floating a new fourfold order. Instead of Brahmin, Kshatriya, Vaishya or Shudra, which are separate and hostile entities, the prime minister has posited a fourfold Varna order of the underprivileged namely women, farmers, youth and the poor, which have no mutual hostility.

During the last one decade, the SP failed to prevent the rise of the BJP in two Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019, and lost the UP assembly elections in 2017 and 2022, besides losing two elections to urban local bodies and two panchayat elections.

The new order proposed by the prime minister is a big challenge for the caste census plank pursued by the SP and the opposition bloc Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). Despite over 80 per cent population of Scheduled Castes- Scheduled Tribes-Other Backward Classes in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the caste census plank failed to click.

Mohan Yadav is a big question mark on the USP of the SP, which has enjoyed the ‘most preferred choice’ of the Yadavs of Uttar Pradesh for the last over three decades. The BJP, by elevating Mohan Yadav as the chief minister of a big state like Madhya Pradesh, has presented an alternative to the Yadav community of the Hindi belt.

Mohan Yadav’s elevation is a big outreach to the Yadavs in the Hindi belt without offending other OBCs, and leaves a big hole in the SP’s strident demand for caste census and also prepares ground for new leadership.

Moreover, the elevation of Mohan Yadav has reinforced the BJP’s credentials among the OBCs, that it is not a party of the upper caste alone.

“Mohan Yadav is also a profound symbol of vindication of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s constant refrain against the family and dynasty rule. From Bhopal, the BJP has sent a loud and clear message to the Yadav community that it is not averse to the political aspirations of the community, that it can provide a national platform to the community and they need not be solely dependent on regional parties like Lalu Prasad Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar and Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh,” said Dr AK Verma, a political analyst.

A SP insider said Mohan Yadav’s elevation could make a dent in the influence held by the Yadav political families in the Hindi belt.

The BJP, which has been sweeping states in the Hindi belt for the last nine years on the basis of a committed vote base among the upper castes, OBCs and sections of Dalits and tribals, had one frontier it had failed to breach – Yadavs in the Hindi belt, particularly in the most populous states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. With the elevation of Mohan Yadav to the top post in a large state, the BJP, party insiders say, has made a strong pitch to Yadav’s across the Hindi belt.

“None can deny the impact it will have when Mohan Yadav campaigns in areas with a strong Yadav presence in states like UP and Bihar, where Yadavs have largely sided with SP and RJD. Even if a section of Yadavs shifts to the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections, the impact will be huge as the BJP already has significant leads,” said a SP leader and added, “Mohan Yadav is not just a signal to Yadavs to support the party but also a signal that they need not support Yadav political families, like the SP and RJD families. Even without a powerful family background, a Yadav can rise in politics.”