Marginal seats might hold the key to government formation in Chhattisgarh, according to the ABP-CVoter Exit Poll.
According to the exit poll data, the Congress is projected to win between 41 and 53 seats. The party is projected to get 43.4 per cent of votes, marginally higher than in 2018. The BJP is projected to win between 36 and 48 seats.
However, out of the 90 Assembly constituencies in the state, 28 are marginal seats. It would be interesting to see what would be the outcome if pro- and anti-incumbency factors are taken into account.
In scenario one, if all marginal seats go anti-incumbent, the Congress is likely to get 29 to 35 seats and the BJP 54 to 60 seats. Others are projected to win 0 to 3 seats. In scenario two, if all marginal seats go pro-incumbent, the Congress is likely to win 56 to 62 seats while the BJP may win 27 to 33. Others are projected to win 0 to 3 seats.
The Congress, which campaigned aggressively in the run-up to the elections, is eyeing a second consecutive term in the state while the BJP is hoping to come back to power in the mineral-rich state. Counting of votes for the 90-member Assembly will take place on December 3.
