India faces a big challenge to preserve India-Maldives ties under new regime
Maldives’s new President, Mohamed Muizzu’s formal request to withdraw security personnel from the Archipelago may be aimed at creating a strategic space for China in the long term but his readiness to discuss agreeable solutions to various issues may be an indicator of a ray of hope of preserving the old relationships with the neighbour (India).
Notwithstanding an open Pro China election campaign launched by Muizzu and subsequently emerging as victorious, the outburst of a newly elected president to ask India to withdraw the security personnel from the island, India responded with positive diplomatic initiative and sent union minister, Kiren Rijju to participate in the swearing-in ceremony of the new president. India opted for a friendly gesture as it was in consonance with Prime Minister, Narender Modi’s “Neighborhood First Policy” and his Vision of SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region).
The policy agreements between China and Maldives may get filip:
Five agreements were signed during the visit of the Chinese foreign minister to Maldives in January 2022 which will get a boost as Muizzi will give top priority to implement them. China may accelerate the process to execute these agreements which include mutual visa exemption between the two nations and Maldivians being permitted to travel on a 30-day vis-free basis, economic and technical cooperation, and development in key areas like social, livelihood and infrastructure projects. Male owes USD 1.4 billion from past loans from China which may be restructured to ease off the pressure on the country's fragile economy.
A big challenge for India:
The Analysts believe that the outcome of the presidential poll is bound to have a bearing on the future dynamics of the region as Muizzu ran his campaign on the theme of Pro China and’ India Out’ rhetoric hence India cannot expect the continuation of present warm ties between two countries. India has expanded trade with Maldives and undertaken several projects since 2108 when Solih took over as head of the nation which had marked an end of the Pro-Beijing template of Abdulla Ameen. Muizzu’s party, People’s Nation Congress is viewed as “Heavily Pro-China” which has promised to ensure the withdrawal of military troops from the country’s soil and balance trade which tilted in favor of India.
The Maldives is a cluster of 1200 islands in the Indian Ocean comprising the main shipping route between the east and the west. Muizzu had focused on the “India Out'' campaign and promised to send back small Indian military personnel and surveillance military aircraft which will open up the space for Chinese presence.
2nd, an agreement relating to Maldives-India defence cooperation to monitor Chinese maritime and naval movements along vital sea lane communication along the side of Maldives may be in jeopardy as Dragon would like to sabotage it under Muizzi.
3rd, China’s enhanced footprint will be strengthened after the addition of Pear (Maldives) in China’s String of Pearls. (The term ‘String of Pearls’ denotes those areas where China is developing its bases, termed ‘pearls’. Which spreads from Hainan Island, Chinese province to Gwadar.) Maldives has been using the China card to bargain with India but the new president may permit the direct involvement of Dragon.
4th, Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOCs) will face an uncertain future but they are of utmost importance and critical for India for maritime trade flow between the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Hormuz in West Asia and the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia. Experts say that 50% of India’s trade and 80% of its energy imports transit these SLOCs in the Arabian Sea.
5th, India’s total exports to Maldives exceeded USD 476.75 Million during 2022-23 which is bound to be affected in future under the new regime. India had committed USD 1.4 billion when Solih took over in 2018 but Muizzu may give priority to the Chinese debt policy.
Finally, India accounts for 23 % of the tourist source market of Maldives which may be affected if Muizzi opts to have strained relations and heavily tilts towards China. Maldives’ 74% GDP depends upon the resources generated from the tourism industry.
Analysts opine that Maldives graduated from the status of Least Developed Nation (LDC)in 2011 only hence new president should try to follow the principle of ‘Equidistance’ diplomacy unlike his predecessor to extract the financial advantages from India and China which will be in the interest of people of his country. At the same time, India will have to tread cautiously to establish better diplomatic ties with Muizz’s regime though it will be heavily tilted in favor of China which cannot be allowed to have a free run to create imbalance in the region.
(The writer is political analyst; views are personal)
