The BJP must do well in the Karnataka polls to ensure its return to power in the 2024 general elections
While riding high on the victory crest in three northeast states, the Bharatiya Janata Party is all set to make its southward journey. It will rely on the charisma of Narendra Modi. But it has to work hard to make the BJP coalition government look good for its lackluster performance. Besides, it will have to tackle several burning issues like anti-incumbency factors, high inflation, and unemployment.
In this backdrop, the BJP has put the prestige of prime minister Narender Modi and B.S. Yeddyurappa, the octogenarian leader at stake. An outcome of Karnataka polls will have a direct bearing on the ensuing three assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh besides impacting the 2024 parliamentary elections.
BJP is banking on Modi's vote-catching capability and the influence of former CM, Yeddyurappa who has been reined in by nominating him as a member of the parliamentary board and central election committee though he has been humiliated in the past. He was twice divested of his CM’s chair. PM Modi tried to placate Yeddyurappa when he described him as one of the most experienced leaders who has devoted his life to the welfare of farmers and poor people.
Yeddyurappa’s community, the Lingayat constitutes 17% of Karnataka's population, mostly in northern areas. Therefore, a belated attempt to woo the community has been made by BJP by appeasing this stalwart who will be a star campaigner but not a CM candidate. BJP will have to focus on Southern Karnataka (Mysore region) as it has done well in other regions and improved significantly in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. But the saffron party is organizationally very strong and has no dearth of resources which is strengthened by RSS machinery. BJP’s support of the majority of Lingayat ‘MUTTS’ and 'Love Jehad' agenda, mobilization of Hindu vote bank through polarization etc. Would be part of its winning strategy.
It is an undeniable fact that BJP has been a rising force in central, western and northern states of India during the post-Mandir era. BJP formed a government in Karnataka in 2008 and 2018 but with the help of partners hence it is vying to emerge independently in Karnataka which may be replicated in Maharashtra also in the future. RSS has been working in coastal Karnataka and BJP got a fillip to expand its footprints in other regions except for southern Karnataka (Mysore region) which needs to be improved as it is the stronghold of JD(S) and Congress.
BJP improved its performance in Karnataka in the Lok Sabha polls in 2019. It got 40 per cent of the votes which was much more than in the assembly polls held in 2018. Karnataka has a 224-member assembly spanning six regions - Bengaluru, Central, Coastal, Hyderabad-Karnataka, Mumbai-Karnataka and Southern Karnataka. BJP has been comfortable in coastal Karnataka and polled 51 % votes in 2018 while the statewide vote was 36%. In central Karnataka, the BJP won 24 out of 35 seats and got 43 per cent votes with a strike rate of 70%. However, it needs to deliver better in Southern Karnataka to win more seats.
In the hope of creating pro-Hindu sentiments, the BJP-Bomai government scrapped the 4% quota of Muslims who will be moved to the 10 % weaker section (EWS) category hence now they will have to compete with Brahmins, Mudaliyars, Jains, Vysyas and others. It may impact existing EWS castes and adversely affect Muslims' interests. Experts say that it may also hurt those castes in the Banjara Community who have been hit due to this new caste rejig hence they have been lying dormant so far. Analysts say that the Bomai government raised the quota for SCs from 15 % to 17 % and STs from 5 per cent to 7 per cent in October 2022 to improve its chances based on the social engineering formula. Then, another attempt was made recently when it withdrew the 4 % Muslim quota. This would be shared between the powerful Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities which enjoyed five per cents and four per cent sub quotas respectively within the OBC segment.
How did Lingayat move away from Congress?
It is the Yeddyurappa phenomenon that brought a sea change to the entire caste structure in Karnataka. This benefited the BJP in a big way. Rajeev Gandhi’s ruthless action of sacking the Veerendra Patil government proved disastrous for Congress which was reduced to 36 seats from 179 seats in 1994 as the Lingayat community moved away from the party. BJP increased its vote percentage from 4% to 17 % which was primarily due to the Lingayat community and party made Yeddyurappa face but an identical blunder was committed by BJP's high command which removed him from chief minister’s post over corruption. He formed his party Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) and damaged BJP in several constituencies in 2013 as the vote split enabled BJP to win 40 seats compared to 110 in 2008. BJP's share dipped from 33.86 % to 19.95 % and Yeddyurappa’s party cornered 9.8%. Now the BJP trio composed of Modi-Shah-Nadda has reigned in Lingayat supremo Yeddyurappa and expects to change the dynamics of Karnataka assembly elections.
Bomai -BJP government’s ‘controversial image’ has given hope to Congress to register its victory after losing three eastern states - Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland which may prove a ‘Game Changer’ for the party at the central level also. But if BJP wins against all odds in the first southern state, it will be encouraged as it will be able to add to its aggressive posture which will help it in state elections and 2024. BJP won 104 seats in the house of 224 in the 2018 assembly elections in Karnataka and toppled the Congress-Janata Dal (secular) coalition in June 2020 barely after 15 months as 16 MLAs of the ruling alliance resigned which brought Bomai to the helm of affairs in the state.
Congress is seriously eyeing Karnataka
The Congress Think Tank is optimistic that it will be able to turn the tables on BJP. This is primarily due to several factors which include skyrocketing prices of essential commodities, unemployment, weakening of the democratic setup, misuse of investigating agencies, atrocities against women, etc. Second, unlike in the past, the Congress general secretary in charge of Karnataka polls, Randeep Surjewala and his team had been deployed by high command well on time. They have been working hard and succeeded in browbeating BJP by releasing the first list of 124 candidates on March 24 which was an unbelievable development. Third, Congress has described its two guarantees – Grih Jyoti – 200 units of electricity free for every household and Grih Laxmi — Rs 2,000 cash transfer every month to every household as a genuine promise to give relief to these two deserving sections of society.
Fourth, Congress is confident about the sympathy generated by Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification from Lok Sabha and other 'excesses' committed by the NDA government. To derive political mileage, Rahul kickstarted the campaign from Kolar in Karnataka on April 5. This is the same place where he delivered a speech that led to his two-year conviction by the Surat court. Fifth, Congress expects the impact of Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra as he raised all issues relating to every section of society including common people, youths, women etc.
Finally, the Congress, however, will have to sort out the issues of infighting in the organization. This will include a tussle for the CM’s post between Siddaramaiah, the opposition leader and Shiv Kumar. It will have to counter the BJP's communal agenda, caste equations and distribution of tickets.
The Aam Aadmi Party contested 29 seats in 2018 and lost all of its deposits. Now AAP may act as a 'vote cutter' in Karnataka if the Delhi CM fields candidates in Bangalore and around. On the other hand, JD(S) and Congress combined took the lead over BJP when the first list was announced which has given a head start to those who got tickets.
Experts believe that it is do or die for BJP and Congress both as final results will impact the ensuing three state assembly polls and parliamentary polls in 2024. As the first semifinal, Karnataka assumes a lot of importance and relevance from a national perspective.
(Writer is a political analyst and senior journalist based in Shimla)
