Though the invading Russian Army seems to be capturing Ukraine, the real war is between the US-led West and Russia, not between Ukraine and Russia. Also as Russia has vetoed a UNSC resolution that demanded that Moscow immediately stop its attack on Ukraine and withdraw all troops, the only possible way out now is an urgent dialogue between Russia and the West

With shock and awe, the world is witnessing the worst ever war crisis in Europe since the end of the Second World War as Russian President Vladimir Putin is hell-bent on punishing Ukraine for refusing to dance to his tune.  On Saturday, the invading Russian Army moved toward Ukraine’s capital. Also, Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution demanding that Moscow immediately stop its attack on Ukraine and withdraw all troops.

Earlier in the week, Putin ordered the movement of Special Forces to eastern Ukraine. According to him, these forces are sent to this region as “peacekeeping forces”. After concluding a talk with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Putin simply declared the recognition of the independence of the Luhansk People’s Republic and Donetsk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine. Interestingly these areas, together known as the Donbass region, have been under the control of the Moscow-backed separatists since early 2014.

However, the entire Donbass is not occupied by the rebel forces. Thus, the constant skirmishes have been a regular affair between the Ukrainian military and the separatists for the last eight long years.

Today, eastern Ukraine is at the centre of the controversy. The majority of the people of Ukraine have centuries old cultural and historical ties with the people of the old Russian Empire. And today, many in eastern Ukraine are ethnic Russians and they speak the Russian language. Interestingly, Donbass region has the largest coal reserves in Ukraine.

Almost all the former Russian republics and Warsaw Pact nations have either joined the NATO or the European Union after the dissolution of the USSR. So, Ukraine slipping away from the Russian orbit and moving into any of these alliances is detrimental to the interest of Moscow under the Putin regime.

For the US and the EU, Ukraine though is not a formal member of the NATO, yet it is like a buffer zone between the NATO alliance partners and an aggressive Russia under Putin. Hence, both Russia and the US-led West have left no stone unturned to hold back Ukraine under their influence.

Why Nord Stream-2 is so vital to Putin and Europe? Russian economy is primarily dependent on massive exports of oil and gas in which Europe is the biggest buyer. And of all the European nations, Germany has remained as the largest consumer.

In this regard, Germany’s permission to pass through the Nord Stream-2 pipeline is very crucial both for Russia and for the rest of Europe, including Germany. This war could spoil business worth billions of dollar for Russia as Scholz has suspended the certification process for the Nord Stream-2. If this happens for the rest of Europe, then Putin will have to rethink his Ukraine strategy.

Since the end of the Cold War, the US-led NATO is on an expansionist move. The primary reason for such a move is to quickly fill the security vacuum created by breakdown of the USSR in eastern Europe. Also, the Western allies thought that it could be really good to welcome these states into their security network as fast as possible because Russia may reassert its military power over them once its economic and political restructuring comes back to normalcy.

The West also sincerely wants to clip the influence of newly emerged Russian Federation under Boris Yeltsin.

Can sanctions stop Putin from further invasions? Truly the kind of sanctions imposed by the US, the EU, and Britain for now will have strong impact on the Russian elite, particularly the members of the Duma who approved the independence of the People’s Republic of Luhansk and the People’s Republic of Donetsk this week. Last few days, we have also seen Japan, Canada and Australia joining the US-led western sanctions against Russia. What surprises the international community is that no single measure of sanctions is directly aimed at Putin. When we look back, we can rightly say that such sanctions will not be able to deter Putin from any further invasions in Europe.

The fact is that after the occupation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, sanctions were imposed on Russia, but it could hardly prevent the current devastating attack on eastern Ukraine. Of course, sanctions and freezing of assets of the Russian elite and inner circles of Putin are a strong step from the West, but those are not sufficient to avert war.

Now the question is whether the Ukrainian military can fight the Russian forces or not. Precisely, Ukraine will find it difficult to face the mighty Russian forces. But for now, the Ukrainian President Zelensky is defiant.

On February 26, he sought to dispel rumours that he had called upon the army to lay down arms. “This is our land, our country, our children. And we will defend all of that,” he said in a short video.

But it is to be noted that military power is relative, not absolute in any case. Frankly speaking what Ukrainian forces and Russian forces used to be during the Crimean War of 2014 is not the same today.

Both the armies have undergone significant changes. Over the past seven years, Putin has invested relentlessly in a slew of advanced military capabilities to strengthen his military to face any Western threat. These include a sophisticated air and missile defence network, some of the latest fighter jets and a number of ultra-modern infantry fighting vehicles and main battle tanks.

On the other hand, the military in Ukraine too has evolved into a modern fighting force in Europe as of today. In a recent speech delivered at Ukraine’s Combat Training Centre in Yavoriv, US Charge de Affairs in Ukraine Kristine Kvien said, “Against the backdrop of Russia’s provocations, it is important to remember that the Ukraine of 2021 and the Ukrainian forces of 2021 are vastly different than those of 2014. To better address external threats, the Ukrainian armed forces have become more capable, more professional fighting force, one of the most capable battle-ready in Europe today, and the United States is proud that our cooperative security efforts have supported this impressive development.”

It is clear how for years the American security agents and advisers built up the Ukrainian military to face any onslaught from the Russian military.

At the moment war is on. Still, it is not clear whether it could turn into a full-scale military conflict involving Ukrainian forces, backed by the NATO and the Russian military. The direct participation of the NATO military against the Russian Federation will turn the war into the Third World War within days. It is widely believed that the Minsk Protocol is still relevant to halt the Ukraine war. It was initially signed between the members of the Trilateral Group, including Russia, Ukraine and the organisation for security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Minsk in February 2015 to stop the hostilities in the Donbass region.

And today, France and Germany are trying to initiate new tools with Russia to bring down the crisis which is known as ‘Normandy Format’. So even at this moment diplomatic talks are on, so Minsk Protocol has not become fully irrelevant.

The most pertinent question at this eleventh hour is what the UNSC could do? At the moment, Russia is the chairperson of the UNSC on a rotational role and it has the pre-eminent role of setting the agenda of the body. Beyond this, Russia being a permanent member of the UNSC wields the precious veto power. China is lambasting at the West for declaring sanctions against Russia. Beijing clearly says sanctions were unlikely to solve the crisis.

Also, Beijing feels that these severe sanctions have all the potentials to harm the interests of average Ukrainians. This brings home the fact that China is in support of Russia. This is an opportune moment for Beijing’s communists to lash out at Washington. Now the new generation Chinese policy makers have made it a point to give sermons to Americans whenever they get the opportunity. And this is what once America and the rest of the West used to do to the whole world.

Thus, in a way, the UNSC is fully divided. The Big-5 will not be able to solve the imbroglio in eastern Ukraine. The UK urges Russia to step back as Putin violates the principles of international law.

Meanwhile, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres urged Putin to stop the war in the name of humanity. He also said earlier that Russia’s decisions are a violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and inconsistent with the principles of the UN Charter. Again, the belligerence of Putin is a complete mockery of Russian commitment to the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 and Minsk Agreement of 2015. Finally, Putin is forcefully trying to redraw the boundaries of Ukraine at his own convenience.

India is walking a diplomatic tightrope at the moment though Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already spoken to President Putin. India is concerned with the rise of hostilities in eastern Ukraine and urged Russia to bring back peace to the region. Today, India could neither side with the US-led West to save Ukraine nor fully support Russian actions over Ukraine. Its better Delhi maintains a cautious move as opposing Putin may jeopardise a decades old ties with Moscow.

The way out today seems an urgent dialogue between Russia and the West. Today, it looks like as if the war is between the US and Russia, not between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine has become a scapegoat in the big fight for dominance in eastern Europe between Russia and the US-led West. But it would be purely a misguided narrative in the Western capitals if it is perceived that Putin’s Ukraine invasion is a pell-mell one. He has been planning it for a long time. Hence, Biden and his counterparts in the West must be careful about any future misadventures of Putin.

(Dr Makhan Saikia has taught political science and international relations for over a decade in institutions of national and international repute after specialisation in globalisation and governance from Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai. He is the chief editor of the Journal of Global Studies, an international research journal)