India will be deeper into G20 presidency next year

IIndia is headed into a new year, with a host of opportunities and big ticket events, promising to firmly put this large democracy on a steering position of the geopolitical economy on a global stage.

The next year could be the first in the decade which would be largely free of initial two years of pandemic restrictions and therefore roaring to go out and press the reset button. The war in Ukraine and its collateral impact on energy, fertiliser and food prices are dampeners but the next three months would be decisive. The winter temperatures till mid-March will largely test the grit of Ukraine and Russian soldiers and snow could turn the fortunes of war in either direction.

However, what will be more challenging is the impact gas shortage forced electricity and heating blackouts has on the larger European population. The larger and more powerful European nations have so far put up a brave face and are thick in the saddle with the US imposing sanctions on Russia, to force it to surrender. However, the sub-freezing winter temperatures, a public outcry against the government's decision during the crucial winter months, could very well turn the wheels.

Meanwhile, the Russian economy has also started feeling the economic impact of the global sanctions regime and may find it unsustainable to carry on for long. A face-saving exercise on both sides, a compromise formula, could be the much needed breather, the world is waiting for. That brings India right into the war, where after facing initial criticism, its plain speak “today’s era is not that of war” has found salience in G20 Bali leaders’ summit declaration earlier in the year. UK foreign secretary this week in his first address to the nation was seen applauding India’s role in trying to broker peace in Europe.

India began the year on an uncertain note, as it was coming out of a deadly second wave, breaking the backs and morale of a huge swathe of its citizens.

Meanwhile, India was also facing huge criticism, including veiled threats to be put in a limited sanctions regime, if it didn’t stop buying hydrocarbons from Russia. The Indian policy makers, ministers, bureaucrats for the first time went into a huddle to prepare a counter narrative to the constant banter primarily from US and western nations. They carefully stitched a fact sheet and handed over a sort of tool kit to all eloquent group of policy makers to counter the accusations about fuelling the Russian aggression in Ukraine. Simultaneously, India chose to move away from its almost neutral stance to a one of firm and polite messaging to its old ally Russia regarding the military aggression in Ukraine, without upsetting its relations with any of its strategic allies and friends. This resulted in “today is not an era of war”, a sharp commentary on the crisis, acceptable to almost all the G20 countries.

This is the agile policy making and diplomacy India needs as it pushes deeper into the G20 presidency next year. There will be contentious issues, conflicting interests, and frenemies to deal with in the approach towards the leaders’ summit in New Delhi in 2023. India has done the groundwork since 2020, even though it was battling one of its kind exigencies, 2023 is the time to execute and leave a long lasting impact.

(The author is a foreign affairs commentator)