What if Russia backs China’s aggression in the future?
The pivots of global foreign policy are shifting fast. A week may be a long time in politics but could prove to be a century in the sands of volatile geopolitical history. What began as an aggressive gesture by Russia to send a message to the wider western coalition of nations has escalated to full-fledgedwar. The Ukrainecrisis is stewarding global power alignments faster than the proverbial ink can dry on newsprint. This is creating a scenario where for the first time in several decades, a global audience hooked on to social media is watching and analyzing a full-fledged war in Europe. This is not to dismiss the earlier military interventions of global powers in several regions of Middle East, Africa and Central Asia, all of which were happening in an arena considered ‘safe’ for most of the Western alliance. But for the first time since World War II the theatre of war is at the doorstep of Europe and is challenging the dominant hegemony, while tryingto resurrect old world power equations. One of the key players which has been cautious in its response to the Ukraine crisis is China which is the real cause of worry for India. China seems to be gaining the most out of the situation. First, the European nations,the US and the UK have imposed severe financial sanctions on Russia to contain its march into Europe. Several of its high net-worth individuals who may have stored their wealth outside their country of origin are increasingly finding it difficult to liquidate their assets. The aim is to economically isolate Russia and make it pay forits aggression. What many agreeis that Russia has carefully scripted an alternative path out, by increasingly courting China bilaterally and also at global forums. China and Russia are both permanent members of the United Nations security council and between them have a bilateral trade relationship of nearly $150 billion. Russia has carefully cultivated China (or vice versa) to develop an alternative “Russian” standard of international payment and settlement system. Even though it is in early stages of development,mutual acceptance of this payment system by two global powers could potentially be equivalent to creating a separate internet for themselves. This is not to mention that these nationshavenot created their own internet silos.
These alternate paymentssystem could possibly urge every existing or emerging global powers such as India to create their own specific standards or codes for international financial transactions. It is likelyto be chaotic and choppy to negotiate through this financial matrix of cross border transactions. However, what is more worrying from India perspective is, the growing dependency of Russia on China for its survival which couldturn the tables for India. India has had several decades of warm relationship with Russia, unhampered by regime changes. India’s dependence on Russian military equipment is a well-known fact. Inthe changing geo dynamic where India is atits worst relationship phase withChina, a growing proximity between Russia and China is potentialthreat for future. India so far abstained from outrightly calling out Russian march into Ukraine’s territories as threat to sovereignty but the space for silent diplomacy is fast shrinking.Sooner than later Russia may have to back up China’s imperialist aggression into another
sovereign’s rightful territory which is huge threat for India. India may also find shrinking vocal power in multilateral forums such as Quad on several issuesof concern around China. The US and its allies including Japan and Australia may have limited bandwidth to focus on Indian grievances expressed in QUAD forum.
(The writer is a policy expert. The views expressed are personal.)
