The Samajwadi Party’s MY (Muslim-Yadav vote) was pitted against the BJP’s MY (Modi-Yogi combination) in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections

Uttar Pradesh, the biggest state of the country, has several regions. The geographical, demographic and even political natures of these regions are different as they are closer to their adjoining states. Purvanchal (eastern UP) is one of the six regions, biggest one, by and large, close to Bihar and various border districts have ‘roti-beti’ relations with the adjoining State. Like Bihar, it is also one of the most backward regions where religion and caste factors always have a play in elections. Even in the latest assembly elections in UP, the domination of these factors were clearly visible.

The impact of Bihar’s famous MY (Muslim-Yadav) factor, which played a crucial role in all recent polls, was also seen in UP, helping the Samajwadi Party (SP) emerge as a big challenge to the ruling BJP, which has changed all poll equations since 2014 with the emergence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It was an election in which Upper Castes enthusiastically supported Modi and a sizable part of non-Yadav OBCs shifted to the BJP as it played its social engineering card effectively under the leadership of Amit Shah.

Though SP’s MY got a good support from unhappy people of different sections, it could not match the rival camp because of another MY combination -- of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath with his clean image, speedy development works and his religious card and the charisma of Modi. The caste-community-based MY failed to match the reach of Modi-Yogi who not only adopted aggressive campaigning but also succeeded in mobilising their supporters to  vote. A slight decline in polling percentage despite resentment in a section helped the ruling party not only keep an upper hand but also increase its polling percentage. Various social welfare schemes of the central and state Governments had provided maximum benefits to the poor, resulting in a sharp shift of a sizable vote-bank of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to the ruling camp. This new addition of votes has imbalanced all the poll strategies and expectations of the SP camp.

Besides, by the time the opposition identified the the real battlefield, it was too late. Its aggressiveness in the last two phases when Purvanchal went to the poll could not make any change as the BJP had already won the battle without giving any time to the rivals to take an advantage from the agitation of farmers and incidents of Lakhimpur and others. In most of the places, despite spending their huge energy, the rivals failed to encash on such tragic incidents, whether it was Umbha (Sonbhadra) or Gorakhpur in this region where the BJP made a clean sweep winning all four and nine seats of these districts, respectively. 

UP has six main regions and out of these Purvanchal is the biggest one with 102 assembly seats followed by Awadh (90), Western UP (76), Central UP (64), Ruhelkhand (52) and Bundelkhand (19). The Bhojpuri-speaking Purvanchal has mainly two belts of Varanasi and Gorakhpur with 61 and 41 assembly seats of three divisions each, comprising 10 and seven districts respectively. As present political bases of Modi and Yogi are there, thedeparture of the Om Prakash Rajbhar-led SuheldevBharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) from the NDA prior to parliamentary elections in 2019 and entry into the SP camp prior to this assembly polls did not make any decisive change, though its impact were clearly seen in some districts with sizable population of Rajbhars (a sub-caste of OBC). BJP tried to boost UP Minister Anil Rajbhar but he did not have time to go outside of his own constituency (Shivpur in Varanasi) where he was contesting against Arvind Rajbhar, son of SPSP chief.

In Ghazipur, BJP lost all seven seats, though in 2017, NDA won five seats with two of its then alliance partner SBSP. In Basti, BJP won just the seat of Harraiya, losing all other four whereas five years ago, NDA bagged all five seats. It also managed to avoid going blank in Mau where in 2017, the party had bagged three out of four seats. Former minister Dara Singh Chauhan, contesting this time as SP candidate, won his seat despite changing it, from Madhuban to Ghosi.

In comparison to Gorakhpur, the BJP received an invisible challenge in Varanasi region as it lost all 10 seats in Azamgarh and fared poorly in Ballia and Jaunpur. In Ballia, both of its ministers, Anand Swaroop Shukla (Bairia) and Upendra Tiwari (Phaphamau), faced defeat while yet another minister Sangeeta Balwant (Ghazipur Sadar) met the same fate.

In Ghazipur, three female candidates of BJP won in 2017 but this time, they all were defeated. The other two were Alka Rai (lost to SP’s Sibghatullah Ansari, brother of alleged mafia don Mukhtar Ansari, in Mohammadabad) and Sunita Singh (lost to former minister OP Singh of SP in Zamania). Not only Sibghatullah but also Mukhtar’s son Abbas Ansari (Mau) won. Mukhtar’s elder brother Afjal is an MP (Ghazipur).

Despite the missing charisma of Modi-Yogi in many districts, the NDA made a clean sweep in Varanasi, Mirzapur, Sonbhadra, Deoria, Gorakhpur and Kushinagar districts clinching all eight, five, four, seven, nine and seven seats, respectively. It maintained its tally in Chandauli, Bhadohi and Maharajganj winning three, two and four seats out of four, three and five constituencies respectively.

The BJP has received a shock in the Varanasi region where it was second largest party after SP, claiming 23 against 26 of SP out of 61 seats. Even NDA was second with 29 against 31 of SP camp whereas in 2017, NDA had won 41 (BJP 34) while SP bagged 12. However, in Gorakhpur region the picture was different as the NDA won 34 seats (BJP 30) out of 41 while SP camp six (five SP itself). In the entire region, NDA won 63 seats (BJP 53) out of 102 while SP camp 37 including 31 by SP. Besides, the region also saw the sole win of BSP (from Rasra in Ballia) and one out of two by Indian National Congress (INC) from Pharenda (Maharajganj). 

Among six divisions of Purvanchal, the poorest performance of NDA was in Azamgarh claiming just three out of 21 (zero in Azamgarh, one in Mau and two in Ballia) whereas in 2017, it had claimed nine (one, three and five respectively). In Basti, NDA just opened its account in Basti and won three out of five in Siddharth Nagar. Its best shows were in Vindhyachal division (maintaining last tally of 11 out of 12, losing just Bhadohi seat to SP) and Gorakhpur (winning 27 out of 28 including all seats of Gorakhpur, Deoria and Kushinagar districts) and lost just one to INC in Maharajganj. However, a mixed result of NDA was seen in Varanasi, winning all the eight seats in Varanasi, retaining three out of four in Chandauli, claiming four in Jaunpur (five in 2017) and facing defeats in all seven seats in Ghazipur. Overall, the NDA won 15 seats out of 28 in the division whereas five years ago, it had claimed 21 seats. The SP camp increased its tally from six to 13.

(The writer is Chief of Varanasi Bureau, The Pioneer. The views expressed are personal.)