Several Assembly polls have shown that Modi alone cannot be the face of BJP; it needs that extra zing, that extra person or an issue, to ride home

The Enforcement Directorate’s raids on the house and business premises of the relatives of Punjab chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi follows a set pattern being followed by the central agencies for a while now in poll-bound states.

“This will generate a lot of smoke, this smoke will remain visible for a while but it will have little or no adverse political consequences for those who have been targeted,” a leader in Punjab quipped on the timing of the raids when elections have been announced and the electoral process has begun.

Those who are knee-deep into politics say that the ED or Income Tax raids or any raid by a central agency hardly benefits the BJP in the elections as the fire is extinguished by those affected by the raid the very next day by playing the victim card to the hilt. The smoke too clears in the next 3-4 days after the agencies give an account of the recoveries and the dust it generates settles down in a week.

So,  BJP in Punjab will have to rely solely on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the political guile of two-time chief minister Amarinder Singh, having a combined tenure of nine and a half years in the top job of the state.

As we all know by now, Modi has a great influence when it comes to something like presidential type elections where he hardly has any political rivals and easily towers over others. It happened in 2014 and 2019 where the election was clearly Modi versus the rest. Obviously the combined “rest” was no match to Modi and the results hardly had any element of surprise. Not much has changed even in 2022 on this front.

However, at the same time, the Assembly elections in several states clearly showed that Modi alone cannot be the face of BJP and it has to get that extra zing, that extra person or an issue to ride home. Even in the home state of the Prime Minister, Gujarat, Congress did reasonably well despite the fact that Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah hailed from the same state. There were a string of losses in states all over the country, suggesting that local and regional leaders held on their own in their home turfs.

In Chandigarh Municipal Corporation elections, Modi was the only face of the BJP in the polls and the party could not win a majority despite ruling the civic body for five years. It’s a different matter that through political machinations, it managed to get its “minority” Mayor elected, though the Aam Aadmi Party had two seats more than the BJP in the House.

So in Punjab, it is unlikely that Modi will have a big influence in the voting process and outcome, whatever his supporters say. The only rally he was supposed to address before the polls were announced, in Ferozepur, had to be canceled after the much-publicized security breach. Though the weather was bad on that day and prevented people from getting out, the low presence at the rally ground suggested that despite the repeal of the three farm laws, BJP has still to cross several more bridges to gain the trust of the Punjabis. To bridge that gap, one election is too short a time. It will take a while and sustained political efforts before BJP comes with the right formulae and local social engineering to get going in Punjab.

As far as Amarinder Singh is concerned, many in the state, some even his supporters, now believe that for him, forming Punjab Lok Congress and aligning with BJP is not a serious shot at power but only an attempt to ensure that Congress which he feels humiliated him, is defeated. Also, many in his old party believe that Amarinder could well be looking at fishing in troubled waters with half a dozen MLAs in a possible hung Assembly.

Without getting into ifs and buts of what would happen after the polling, it is clear that BJP wants to have a roadmap of its own in the Sikh majority state in the near future. It was in alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal for over two decades in the border state and used to contest 20 seats in the urban areas as a junior partner. The two parties complemented each other well-SAD, claiming to put across Sikh point of view while BJP the Hindu point of view in a state which was badly affected by militancy in the 1980s and early 1990s.

The now repealed three agricultural laws changed the political dynamics of the state and no one either from the BJP or the SAD could envisage the consequences it would have on state politics before the bills were conceptualized and eventually passed. As Sikh farmers from the state gathered at Delhi borders in one of the most visible non-violent protests in decades, opposition to the farm laws became a sort of mass movement in Punjab which a party could neglect only at its peril. SAD took the initiative and parted ways with its partner BJP and withdrew its minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal from the Modi Cabinet.

Even when BJP was in alliance with SAD, particularly, during the ten years of its rule (2007 to 20017), there were demands within BJP to test electoral waters independently. This chorus grew louder since 2014 when Modi emerged as a towering leader and BJP won several state elections and changed the political dynamics of the country. So, in 2022 it will be the first time in decades that BJP would be the big brother in the alliance with Congress turncoat and PLC chief Amarinder Singh and would contest 65 odd seats. If BJP manages a decent show and the definition of a decent outing would vary from one leader to the other, a new alignment could emerge in Punjab. But given the fact that BJP has been unable to grow in rural Punjab due to multiple factors, it looks like a long haul for the saffron party at present.

Many in the SAD believe that Amarinder Singh’s PLC is only a one election wonder and they have little or no differences with BJP, more so when the reason for their differences-Farm Acts-no longer exists. So there would hardly be much surprise if the SAD is back in alliance with the BJP for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and a soft understanding soon after the 2022 Assembly polls. In fact, none of the two parties-SAD and BJP-are making noises against each other in the campaign, making it clear that there is hardly any difference of opinion amongst them. If BJP does reasonably well in assembly polls, it will then bargain for more seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls from SAD. That seems to be the refrain of some BJP leaders as well as an aging Captain Amarinder is no guarantee for their future political plans in the state and SAD completes the Hindu-Sikh political stereotype which helps BJP in rest of the country as well.

(The writer is Senior Resident Editor, The Pioneer, Chandigarh. The views expressed are personal.)