The rising arms race despite a thaw in nuclear contests poses multi-pronged threats in the region
The Ukraine crisis is apparently the creation of arms lobbies, which want to increase post-pandemic sales of arms, weaponry systems and cyber gadgets. In the process, the Indian sub-continent is emerging as the hub for American, Russian Chinese weapons deals.
India is hit by the Ukraine development not only for the rising fuel prices but also import of sunflower and other edible oils, tea exports and possible restrictions on shipping that could impact exports and its production. But the rising arms race despite a thaw in nuclear contest poses multi-pronged threat in the region.
The prolonged unsuccessful Afghanistan and West Asian war has drained the US economy posing problem for the world’s largest weapon industry.
The economic problems and suffering citizens pressurize the US President Joe Biden to remain subdued against blatant Russian invasion of Ukraine. A generation of the US people saw miseries rising; arms lobby profits soaring, economy draining and consequently creating an unstable world costing it $ 8 trillion in wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Pakistan. It also caused nine lakh deaths and displaced 21 million across Europe.
The arms lobby is keen that the situation in the sub-continent remains fluid so that they could increase their sales. It keeps Pakistan in a state of flux because of the US policy of not allowing it friendly relations with India and carefully working out the collapse of SAARC. The perpetual situation of fear helps the US and its allies to sell arms, fighter aircraft and other military arsenal to both India and Pakistan through morphed assessments of security situations and pressurized military build-up.
Interestingly enough the 20 largest US arms producers and military services companies, including Lockheed and Boeing, report $5.436 billion profits for several trillion-dollar arms sales since 2001. As sales to other countries dip, they increase in the Indian subcontinent. The region is becoming an arms bazaar.
Pakistan finance ministry says since the 2001 US onslaught on terror, it spent $5.4 billion on arms purchases from the US. A Jung and Geo TV Group study shows that the US doled out $33 billion since 2001 for curbing terrorism, ‘health and education’. Since 1947, Pakistan received $70 billion from the US. Pakistan has PKR11.8 trillion debts. The US funding apparently takes care of its revenue.
The US arms sales to India increases to $3.4 billion in 2020 from $6.2 million at a time when universal sale of US weapons dip to $ 50.8 billion from $ 55.7 billion. The major countries that cut arms purchases include Saudi Arabia, Belgium, Iraq, South Korea and Afghanistan.
But the US sales to strategic regions like Taiwan and Poland rise. Poland gets arms worth $4.5 billion up from $ 12.4 million and Taiwan $ 11.8 billion up from $ 8.76 million, according to Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), to keep China and Russia at bay. The UAE surprisingly has increased its arms purchases to $ 3.6 billion from $ 1.1 billion
Even Russia since 2014 has been increasing its ties with Pakistan and in 2021 pledges Mi-35 assault helicopters and anti-tank systems. It has also granted $1 billion arms loans to Bangladesh and agrees to supply arms to Sri Lanka.
Indian reliance on Russia is declining despite still its large imports. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) states that 49.4 per cent of Indian arms imports between 2016 and 2020 were from Russia, 0.5 per cent from Ukraine. Between 1996 and 2016, Russia supplied 70 percent of arms.
Bangladesh has been buying more arms from the US with purchases touching $110 million since 2009, including plans to Apaches and missiles. It also buys military equipment, including naval armaments, worth $2.59 billion from China. The Chinese bid to increase influence in Nepal is concern for India.
Sri Lanka is also emerging as a hub with the US wooing it for a military cooperation deal and privileges for visiting US troops. China in April 2021 vowed to enhance “pragmatic cooperation” in the military and other sectors.
Even as the Ukraine situation intensifies, the concern of the Indian subcontinent over an arms race should raise eyebrows. Though no major conflict has been seen in the region since the Kargil conflict, the larger arms acquisition in the region will hopefully not change the equilibrium.
During the past five years, the arms sellers are wooing all countries in the region to buy more sophisticated weaponries and security gadgets. If India gets drawn into this race its resources can get diverted.
(The writer is a senior journalist. The view expressed are personal.)
