The country's sugar exports are expected to increase to around 9-10 million tonnes in sugar season 2022, beginning October, following lower production in Brazil due to adverse weather conditions, according to a report.

Ind-Ra expects the total exports for SS22 (Sugar Season 2022) to rise to 9-10 million tonnes, surpassing the previous high of 7.2 million tonnes shipped in SS21, as the lower production in Brazil (which is down 40 per cent year-on-year in first 1.5 months ended mid-May 2022) due to adverse weather conditions and delayed harvesting.

Brazil is the largest exporter of sugar, constituting 35-45 per cent of the global trade, and a fall in its exports in the current season could result in India's share rising to around 15 per cent, the Ind-Ra report stated. However, Ind-Ra believed exports were anyway unlikely to exceed 10 million tonnes, given rebound in production in Thailand after two consecutive seasons of decline. As a result, the restriction is unlikely to materially affect sector, although any issues in mill-wise approval process could act as a dampener, it added.

Meanwhile, with two successive seasons of production deficit, international sugar prices hit a five-year high of over 20 cents per pound in April 2022, averaging around 19 cents per pound till now in SS22.

While India's export restriction did not affect prices meaningfully, prices are likely to remain robust with a lower cane output and sugar mix in Brazil, which bodes well for Indian exports, Ind-Ra said.