The little-more-than-immediate denouement of the catastrophe, i.e., the pandemic, seems to be more dangerous than the immediate ones. As the total fatality rate has climbed up to 2 per cent this May, for the one infected, whether asymptomatic or with mild symptoms and isolated at home or hospitalised, and his family has been equal to living with the constant apprehension of death.
Not only the infected but those not infected also appear to be living under constant fear of turning a prey to the virus anytime soon with each day bringing in some unfortunate news about a family member or a friend or an acquaintance. As such, death and uncertainty brood over all of us; worse is to say about those individuals engaged in medical profession whether physicians, nurses, paramedics, etc. Not only the common man but the Government is going through the most troubling times of the recent known history and the governance is jeopardised.
Among all of these, the economy is hit worst. With inequality rising, people are getting poorer and deeper in debt each day; and happiness has become a thing of past. This is clear by the fact that in the year preceding the pandemic, i.e., FY- 2019-20, the GDP grew by 4 per cent; and in the first phase of the pandemic that is in FY- 2020-21, it fell by 8 per cent.
And now that we are in the second phase of the pandemic and have witnessed a new peak of infections in a day which is more than 4 lakh and a new peak of deaths in a day, which is more than 4 thousand. Under such circumstances, it is difficult to say that if in FY-2021-22, the GDP will be resurrected or will be sluggish or runs reverse.
However, we can only pray that the ultimate growth rate would be encouraging. On assessment of the present situation, what we get is that we have lost the potential output of about Rs 2.8 lakh crore in 2019-20 and an actual output loss of Rs 11 lakh crore in the year of the first phase of the pandemic, i.e., FY- 2020-21. If we are to assume zero growth, the GDP at the constant prices will remain at maximum Rs 134 lakh crore in 2021-22.
Irrespective of all that is said, there is no doubt that India is a growing economy; and even if we are to assume the potential growth of a minimum 5 per cent, it is certain that the notional loss of output will be not less than Rs 6.7 lakh crore. In three years, it shall add up to about Rs 20 lakh-crore loss to the GDP. And this shall have wide-ranging ramifications like loss of jobs, income, savings, shelter, investment, education, etc.
If reports of various agencies are to be believed, 90 per cent of families witnessed reduction in their incomes during the last 13 months. The RBI’s bulletin for the month of May 2021 says about ‘reduction of discretionary spending’, ‘inventory accumulation’ and ‘demand shock’.
According to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, the unemployment rate on May 29, 2021 was 11.82 per cent (at national level), 14.15 per cent (urban) and 10.78 per cent (rural). As such, there is massive exodus from urban to rural areas and an increase of disguised labour in the already overburdened agriculture sector.
Further, various reports published by the Azim Premji University beckon towards the fact that households were forced by the circumstances to borrow and sell assets and cut back on food consumption in order to cope with the shock; and many poorer households resorted to larger loans in comparison to their earnings. Viewing the facts and figures put in total, it is more than clear that the economy even if it is far from being completely wrecked, the parameters are not quite encouraging; and if such economic conditions are to continue along with the pandemic, then it shall definitely have a ‘not so welcome’ impact on our livelihoods and it shall devastate the national life.
(The writer is lawyer and public policy expert and a Distinguished Adjunct Professor of Law and Media Studies at School of Mass Communication, KIIT University. He can be reached at sjyotiranjan3@gmail.com)
