There is as yet no real check on world population growth as 140 million are born and 58 million die every year, adding a net 82 million

Unusual weather phenomena like extreme heatwaves in the USA and Canada or the recurrent cyclonic onslaughts on the Indian coasts are now causing concerns. Scientists and meteorologists attribute them to overuse of non-renewable energy, excessive rise in ocean water temperature, absorbingmore greenhouse gas emissions, widespread deforestation, et al. Arenot they indicative of over-exploitation of nature's bounties leading to a serious ecological imbalance?

American biologist Paul Ehrlich in his book 'Population Bomb' rang the alarm bell when he said in 1968 when the global population touched 3.5 billion that the earth's resources are "finite" and cannot cope with "infinite population growth".

If we look back, the global population doubled from 0.25 billion to 0.5 billion within 700 years from the early 9th century to the middle of the 16th century, and the same trend continued till the first half of the 20th century.  In the latter half, the fastest doubling occurred between 1950 and 1987, as the population grew from 2.5 billion to 5 billion in just 37 years.

To counter the rising population, a concerted global move originated in 1987, and the world began to observe July 11 as 'Population Day' under the auspices of the United Nations from 1990. It aimed to curb unbridled population growth and issues that have a bearing on it such as gender equality, women's empowerment, their sexual and reproductive health and rights, mother and child health care, family planning, eradication of poverty, etc.

These efforts yielded positive gains, registering an almost 60 per cent reduction in Child Mortality Rate from 93 deaths per 1000 live births in 1990 to 38 in 2019. However, the rate is not uniformly distributed across the globe. In India, the number of deaths of children underfive fell from 3.4 million in 1990 to one million in 2017, that is from 1-in-4 to 1-in-20.

Similarly, the global fertility rate also fell from 3.2 births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019 and is projected to decline further to 2.2 in 2050. Nevertheless, there are a few places where fertility remained above the global average. The Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) also declined globally by 38 per cent (2000-2017) although it was found unacceptably high in sub-Saharan Africa.

However, the declining mortality and fertility rates are not the only determining factors in raising the population growth.  The number of women in the reproductive age also matters. If there are more women in the reproductive age bracket(15-49 years), the number of births will be high, even when the fertility rate is low, which is termed as 'population momentum', and it explains why the number of children in the world will not decline as rapidly as the fertility rate. UN projections show women in the reproductive age group will increase from 1.8 billion in 2013 to two billion by 2025. As a result, the number of births is expected to peak at 143 million by the middle of this century, and then taper down to 131 million by 2100, with the global population touching at nearly 11 billion.

Nevertheless, as per the latest UN data analysis, the global population has already reached its peak between 1961 and 1963. It is now the low fertility rate that keeps the population changes small while in the past, it was the high mortality that maintained the population under check. Yet, the population growth hasnot stopped: every year 140 million are born, and 58 million die, adding 82 million people. India is projected to overtake China by 2027 when the latter's population is expected to decrease by 31.4 million.

As the world passes through a severe pandemic situation, a WHO survey said that family planning services were the most extensively disrupted. The UNFPA's estimate in March 2021 was that about 12 million women suffered because of such disruptions in 115 countries, resulting in 1.4 million unintended pregnancies. All this could lead to a situation of changing fertility rates and demographic shifts. Such a disturbing trend also evokes apprehensions that many countries may resort to coercive measures for fertility control, which are likely to make adverse impacts on women's and girls' decision-making power, freedom of movement, and access to health services.

As the world celebrates Population Day 2021, the UNFPA has urged upon the nations to prioritise women's health, sexual, and reproductive rights to offset the pandemic's damaging impacts and to adopt holistic responses through family support and child-care systems, allowing women to exercise their choice and rights over their bodies as the solution to shifting fertility rates.

(The writer is former Director-General, Doordarshan and All India Radio. The views expressed are personal.)