To achieve the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 per cent of pre-industrial level, carbon dioxide emissions need to be 45 per cent below 2010 level by 2030
The COP26 has concluded with a final resolution that has been hailed by some and considered not enough by others. However, the deliberations did bring out the crucial impact that greenhouse gas emissions are having on our planet and that nobody is immune to the effects of this. For at least a month, the attention of the entire world was focused on the likely temperature rise over the pre industrial era and its impact on climate change and correspondingly on livelihood and the future of our planet. It is clear that climate change is a reality which cannot be brushed under the carpet because it has already started impacting human lives and threatens a potentially disastrous future.
There was a lot of debate about countries committing themselves to a net zero target on a particular date in the future. Many countries like the Nordic countries were talking about reaching net zero before 2050 and there was pressure on India to also promise net zero by 2050. This was raising issues of development versus environment for a growing economy like India. It was pointed out that per capita emissions of greenhouse gases in India is far below than that which is prevailing in the developed economies. The issue of climate equity was raised. Was it not imperative on the developed countries to contribute more significantly to reduction of greenhouse gases as they were responsible for the same to a larger extent?
The developed countries were pointing towards India and China by saying that these countries are the largest emitters of greenhouse gases and, hence, it is obligatory for them to take steps for mitigation of emission of greenhouse gases.
India took the lead. It pointed out that it has been honoring its commitments made in the nationally determined contributions (NDC) after the Paris agreement. The Prime Minister in his speech outlined a very positive action plan for the future of India. He promised that India would seek to attain net zero by 2070. India also assured that by 2030 the installed renewable energy capacity would be raised to a level of 500 GW and that 50 percent of the country’s electricity requirement would be met from renewable sources.
We also projected reducing cumulative carbon emissions by 1 billion tones between 2020 and 2030 and reducing carbon intensity of GDP by 45 percent compared to 2005 level. The rest of the countries also came out with their commitments but the experience has been that in the absence of an enforcement mechanism the promises made by various countries have not been honored in practice. A classic example has been that the promised climate finance by the developed nations to the extent of $100 billion every year by 2020 is yet to be realized. Climate change mitigation and adaptation would only be possible with accountability on the concerned nations and there should be a sense of credibility to their pronouncements.
As it is, it has been reported, that if all NDCs are implemented then the greenhouse gases level in 2030 would be 15.9 percent above 2000 level. In order to achieve the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 percent of pre industrial level, scientists have calculated carbon dioxide emissions need to be 45 percent below 2010 level by 2030. Climate change is definitely a serious affair which needs much more than pious intentions to mitigate.
India would also have to strive hard to achieve the goals it has identified for itself in COP 26. India is a developing economy and its focus has to be on providing higher per capita income and better quality of life to its citizens. At the same time India is a responsible nation aware of its global commitments and its role in saving the future of humanity. Sustainable development is the key word. India has to create an enabling environment to attract global investments. It has to invest in infrastructure to make this happen.
The energy sector requires serious reforms of the discoms. We need to strengthen our grid infrastructure and massively increase battery storage capacity to usher in clean energy. All this would require a huge skilled work force which requires investment in education and re-skilling. The focus on renewal energy would have a geographic element also as it is the western and southern states which would become the main provider of renewal energy but eastern India where the coal belt exists would see job losses. India would need a plan taking all aspects into account for ensuring a “just” energy transition. All this would raise questions about the sustainability of renewal energy generation goals.
All the options have social costs. Nuclear energy has the social cost of possible radiation while hydro-electric projects have huge environmental issues of rehabilitation and relocation. Even solar and wind energy have a problem of requiring enormous amount of land. Even otherwise Indian declaration implies that fossil fuels will continue to contribute 50 percent of the energy requirement leading to increased emissions.
India would be required to prepare a detailed strategy and action plan to ensure that it fulfills its commitments. All this cannot be done at the Central Government level and the States would have to be fully involved. In fact, a culture of carbon neutrality will have to be built in all projects. I recently attended a conference on climate change where they claimed that the conference was carbon neutral as they have planted trees in a designated area to set off all the carbon emissions created by the conference. This is the approach which will have to be followed. Every event and every project will have to aim for carbon neutrality. This requires a high degree of awareness and consciousnessin all sections of the society. Implementation is not going to be easy. Even today we see that Delhi and NCR are facing a high level of air pollution due to stubble burning, vehicle emissions and other factors and the Supreme Court has lamented that despite this problem occurring every year in winter the Center and State Governments have not been able to sit down together to resolve it. Then recently we saw on the TV screens the frothing waters of the river Yamuna in Delhi have become unfit for human use. If these problems have not been tackled for years, then one wonders how the promises made regarding climate change mitigation would be met.
A high-level monitoring committee will have to be setup to monitor on regular basis and policy making will have to be dovetailed to the commitments made regarding greenhouse gas mitigation. Policy makers have an unenviable task before them as they also have to see that development is not adversely impacted and the poor of the country are not made to carry the burden. In a similar vein, at the international level also, a monitoring and enforcement mechanism would need to be evolved. Climate change cannot be ignored but it requires urgent and concrete action for mitigation and adaption.
(The writer is former Chief Secretary, Government of Uttar Pradesh. The views expressed are personal.)
