Till the last week of June 2020, there was no uncertainty about the return of CPI(M) to power in Kerala in the 2021 Assembly election. The CPI(M) and Pinarayi Vijayan were all set to defeat and break the bane haunting the ruling parties in the State  for decades, the anti-incumbency factor. Kerala has been ruled alternately by the CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front and the Congress-led United Democratic Front after each election.

Everything started falling apart for Vijayan after the Customs department busted a massive Gold Smuggling Racket operating through the diplomatic channel of Thiruvananthapuram Airport.

It was found that M Sivsankar, the then principal secretary to the Chief Minister had close links with Swapna Suresh, PS Sarith  and  Sandeep Nair, the kingpins behind the gold smuggling operation. Though Sivsankar was suspended from service, the damage has been done as it was found that Swapna was working as a senior executive of the Kerala Government owned Space Park, an IT concern of which Sivsankar was the CEO.Swapna was an HRD executive with the UAE Consulate in the capital city before she switched over to Space Park. But it was found that the woman was a school drop out and managed to get the Space Park assignment at a salary of Rs 1,70,000 per month with the help of a fake degree certificate.

Higher Education Minister K T Jaleel, leader of the outlawed SIMI, was found to have close liaison with the UAE Consulate and was reported to have received from the consulate gift packets and Quran bundles in violation of all rules of the land. Though Jaleel denied any underhand dealings, probes proved that all is not overboard and everything from smuggling to gifts have direct links with terrorism, anti-Centre agitations and money laundering.

Sivsankar has been questioned by Customs, NIA and the ED. Swapna and ten others are in the custody of NIA and Customs. The NIA has slapped the UAPA sections in the charge sheet against her. Though Vijayan claimed that he does not know Swapna, her mobile phone operators say that she had visited Chief Minister’s official residence four times in the last week of June 2020.

The Life Mission of the Kerala Government, a flagship programme to ensure all people in the State get a rooftop above their heads, too is the latest casualty as it has been found that contracts were issued only after kickback was received .

Sreejith Panicker, young political commentator, is of the view that chances of Pinarayi Vijayan and the CPI(M) returning to power after the next election are unlikely. “Till the Springler deal emerged in the horizon the government was doing well. It had succeeded in wiping out black memories of Sabarimala controversy which was proved by the by-election results to the State assembly.

But the mishandling of the Covid-19 and the scam associated with the gold smuggling are major blots which have done irreparable damage,” said Panicker. 

But M R Hari, managing director, Invis Multi Media (Kerala’s first IT major) and chronicler of State politics says Vijayan and the CPI(M) are in strong wickets. “This government has done a lot of good things. There were many controversies in the last four years but they were all baseless allegations. In Kerala what matters is how the government performs in the last two months before the election. Vijayan remains invincible,” Hari said.