The defeat of the ruling combine in Baroda seems to clearly suggest that farmers are not yet convinced about the farm laws being in their favour

The result of the bypoll for the Baroda Assembly seat in Haryana may not have any significance for the stability of the BJP-JJP (Jannayak Janta Party) coalition Government in the State, nor will it affect its strength in the Assembly. But it is expected to have a far-reaching impact on the politics of the State in the medium to long-term. Despite a spirited campaign by top leaders, BJP candidate and Olympic medallist Yogeshwar Dutt was routed by over 10,000 votes by the Congress nominee Indu Raj Narwal in a constituency dominated by Jats.

Political precedence and electoral behaviour of the past suggest that candidates from the ruling party or coalition usually have an edge in the bypolls and they win two times out of three. Even in the bypolls in different States this time round, the ruling parties or coalitions in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Odisha had it easy and they won handsomely. But the Baroda bypoll proved to be different as the combined might of the BJP-JJP could not consolidate enough to get victory for Dutt, the Olympian who was defeated in the 2019 Assembly polls as well.

Interestingly, the margin of defeat increased in his second electoral outing. He was routed by around 4,800 votes in 2019 by Congress candidate Shri Krishan Hooda. This time, the margin has doubled to over 10,600 votes. What could be a matter of concern for the ruling dispensation in Haryana is the fact that in 2019, the JJP and BJP fought against each other; this time around they fought in an alliance but still lost by a bigger margin.

The bypolls were held in the background of the farmers’ agitation in Punjab and Haryana against the three farm Acts. The Congress has been hammering the point that the laws are against the interests of the farmers and the regime of Minimum Support Price (MSP) has been threatened by them. The BJP, on the other hand, has been repeatedly stressing that these Acts are for the benefit of the farming community and are set to increase rural prosperity by giving more money into the hands of the tillers.

Baroda is largely a rural constituency with the dominant Jats in a position to determine political outcomes. The defeat of the ruling BJP-JJP combine in Baroda seems to clearly suggest that farmers are not yet convinced that the farm laws are in their favour. They have rejected the arguments of the BJP-JJP leadership, forcing the alliance partners to have a rethink on the way forward.

Of course, there is no election in Haryana in the near future. The earliest one could be in May 2024 when general elections are scheduled and the BJP-JJP combine could perhaps get enough time to make a course correction. Alliance or not, the BJP will have to woo the farming community back into its fold. Particularly the Jats if it wants to be close to its spectacular performance in the next Lok Sabha polls. On the defensive now, BJP strategists are insisting that Baroda had always remained a Congress stronghold and the result should be seen in that context.  They are also arguing that the BJP got more votes than last time and “all is well” in the alliance and this was one “stray and local” political incident, which cannot have any impact on the politics of the State.

Clearly, the outcome has put the ruling coalition on the defensive and many in the JJP know that it was entirely owing to the mistrust over the farm laws that the alliance could not make any headway.

The Baroda seat fell vacant in April following the death of sitting  MLA Hooda, who had won it three times in a row in the 2009, 2014 and 2019 Assembly polls. It is adjacent to the Garhi Sampla-Kiloi constituency, represented by Congress strongman and two-term Chief Minister of the State, Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Another question which would emerge at this point is the winning potential of the BJP-JJP combine and whether they will stick together in the next elections.

The alliance was formed after the BJP won 40 of the 90 Assembly seats in the 2019 polls and needed a post-election partner to give a stable Government in the State. Though the two parties formed the partnership, many in the JJP have been openly voicing concerns and have repeatedly raised the issue of the three Central farm laws.

Deputy Chief Minister Dushyant Chautala, who belongs to the JJP, has faced protests in several parts of the State for backing these laws. Being a grassroot politician, he is aware that there are strong apprehensions and resentment among the land-holding castes about the impact of the Acts.

The Baroda result has undoubtedly made it clear that the JJP has not and may not be able to transfer its votes to the BJP. In fact, many on the ground  believe that whatever votes the BJP got was entirely from its vote bank.  They say the JJP was defensive throughout the campaign and could not garner any support for the BJP candidate.

This was the only electoral test which the BJP-JJP alliance faced jointly after the 2019 tie-up and it failed miserably. It is more or less a marriage of convenience. For the BJP, it is a route to a stable Government and for the JJP it is a shot at being in power before going solo again in the next general elections. BJP poll managers have more or less realised now that it would be futile to fight future elections jointly with the JJP.

The message of the Baroda bypoll is also clear for the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), the parent party of the JJP, led by Om Prakash Chautala and his elder son Abhay Chautala. The people of Baroda and the State have made it clear that the JJP is the torchbearer of the legacy of former Deputy Prime Minister Chaudhary Devi Lal. The  INLD will have to become a really serious Opposition with an accompanying strategy to replace the JJP.

If there is one person who has a place on the victory podium besides the winning candidate Narwal, it is the Leader of Opposition in the State, Bhupinder Singh Hooda. He not only managed to retain his family pocket borough but also harvested the anti-farm law feelings to his electoral advantage. At present, he has no challenger in the State Congress and this unchallenged reign is likely to continue till the next elections. 

(The writer is Senior Resident Editor, The Pioneer, Chandigarh)