As Britain leaves the EU, the goal of an ‘ever closer union’ hated by English exceptionalists, is back on the agenda
Blaming the victims is never a good strategy. As Britain finally leaves the European Union (EU), we should try to remember that 48 per cent of the turkeys didn’t vote for Christmas. Brexit was not exactly a national act of self-harm. It was really an attack by the nostalgic and nationalist old on the young. This is because 60 per cent of British over-65s voted to leave the EU but 61 per cent of the under-35s voted to remain. Having had four years to think it over, most British people now think it was a mistake — by a 48-39 majority, according to a YouGov poll in October. However, it is too late for all of them. Boris Johnson is Prime Minister and he dare not anger the English ultra-nationalists on the right of his own Conservative party. After months of amateur dramatics that accompany any Johnson decision, on Christmas Day the United Kingdom (UK) concluded a pathetically thin “free trade” deal that reflects the real balance of power between the EU and the UK. The new agreement which was unanimously approved by the EU nations will come into effect from January 1. Even so, the deal is not yet a law and needs to be ratified by the parliaments of the UK and EU, a process which will likely take a few more weeks. Until the agreement is formally approved and signed, it will be applicable on a provisional basis.
It looks pretty good for manufactured goods and commodities, which make up 20 per cent of Britain’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP): No tariffs, no quotas. But the EU sells far more stuff to the UK than the other way around and it has a $45 billion trade surplus in goods. Of course it made a deal on that! By contrast, there is no trade deal at all in services, which account for 80 per cent of the UK’s economy and used to produce a $112 billion surplus for it. Hence, the UK is now entirely vulnerable to whatever restrictions the EU may choose to apply to its banks, insurance companies and providers of other professional services. In his usual style, Johnson will smear lipstick all over this pig of a deal and declare it a triumph. Those who want to believe it will do so. The only early evidence of the huge defeat that it really is will be some delays at the ports as customs officers learn their new jobs. The real bill will come in later and almost invisibly, in lost trade, investment and opportunities.
The last official British Government estimate was that 15 years from now, the British economy will be between five per cent and seven per cent smaller than it would have been as an EU member (but still a bit bigger than it is now). That’s not the raw material for a counter-revolution. Besides, any projection about the economic situation in 2035 is really pure “guesstimate.” One Covid-19 outbreak more or less could make just as much a difference as Brexit. All one can say is that the British economy will not “prosper mightily” outside the EU, as Johnson promised. But it won’t collapse either. And then, in due course, the younger, pro-EU Brits will become the majority thanks to the magic of generational turnover. But until then, if Britain comes knocking at the EU’s door, asking to be allowed back in, Brussels should say “no.” What will really happen on Thursday is that the EU will be finally free to develop in the way that its other major members clearly want. The goal of an ever closer union, hated by English exceptionalists is back on the agenda. There is ambivalence in every member country about the idea of creating a semi-federal European super-state. But in a world where democracy and the rule of law are under siege most people can see the need to strengthen the EU. Last July the EU’s leaders took a huge step in that direction: For the first time they agreed to borrow collectively on the financial markets.
France and Germany were all for it and Italy and Spain needed the money to finance a trillion-Euro aid programme to help them through the Coronavirus crisis. Those four countries now contain more than half the EU’s population and they outvoted the “frugal four” (the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Denmark) that opposed taking on debt to support “feckless” Mediterranean members. If Britain had still been a member, it would have vetoed the measure because it infringed on the UK’s sacred sovereignty. French President Charles de Gaulle, who vetoed British membership applications twice in the 1960s, was right: England does not have a ‘European vocation’ and it should not be allowed in. The financial precedent that was set in July opens the door to a future EU that acts much more like a State. Even a common defence budget is now within reach — not something vital in military terms. However, a European army would be a hugely important symbol of unity. The US may be back soon in its position as a world leader but the world could certainly use a second powerful advocate for democracy and the rule of law. This is vital, given China’s expansionist ambitions and the dangerous nexus it has been creating through the debt economy. Brexit may be giving us just that by freeing the EU to move on and we should be grateful.
(Gwynne Dyer’s new book is ‘Growing Pains: The Future of Democracy and Work.’ The views expressed are personal.)
