The adamant stand of the protesters and the city administration is only going to aggravate the crisis. ‘One country, two systems’, which allows Hong Kong greater social-political freedom not seen in mainland China, is in grave danger
On July 1, Hong Kong completed 22 years under the China rule. The day known as the “Establishment Day” in the lexicon of modern Chinese political history witnessed a full-fledged anti-establishment movement against Beijing, mostly led by the young Hong Kongers. The fear and fury of the Xi Jinping regime has escalated the tension between the island and the mainland in recent years. However, what has precipitated the crisis is the Extradition Bill proposed by city Chief Executive Carrie Lam. The Bill proposes to allow extradition to mainland China. Even though Lam announced later that the Bill has been indefinitely suspended, protests led by pro-democracy groups have refused to subside.
Why these protests are coming up against the Beijing rule? Does the mainland have no right to rule over Hong Kong? What is the way ahead for both Hong Kong and the mainland?
These protesters mainly consist of the youth who don’t want to give up their freedom to the social-political control of the Bejing rule. The latest incident of protesters ransacking the city’s Legislative Council has sent warning signals to Beijing. China’s Ambassador to Britain Liu Xiaoming has denounced Hong Kong’s ultra radicals. He claimed that the protesters have challenged the bottom line of “one country two systems”.
The Chinese Government’s Liaison Office in Hong Kong declared that the “savage acts” were an outright provocation and trampling of the city’s rule of law. These outbursts of the Hong Kongers are primarily targeted at the central Government and its continued attempt to take full control of the island. The original framework, negotiated in a treaty between China and Britain on July 1, 1997, is supposed to protect Hong Kong’s freedom until 2047. But then occasional overtures demonstrated by the mainland quite often irk the freedom-loving people of the island city. This is the root cause of the uprising, wherein the protesters display their discontentment with the mainland rule.
On the other hand, China has full right to exercise its power over Hong Kong as it is an integral part of it. For this, China does not need the permission from any western nation or any international organisation. The demonstrators displaying the British-era colonial flag and asking other western nations to intervene hardly make any sense. If they have to find a solution, then the islanders can very well negotiate with the mainland Government and devise a way-out formula. Decrying the mainland rule and posing threat to the security of the entire country will invite more problems, rather than producing solutions.
The unique thing about the mass protest is that it is the largest in Hong Kong’s history. It is highlighting rising fear and anger over the erosion of civil liberties in the island. When Hong Kong was returned to China by Britain, the Basic Law guaranteed the territory a high degree of autonomy. And this policy has helped preserve Hong Kong’s civil services, independent courts, free press, open internet and other elements that distinguished it from the existing Communist system of the mainland. This autonomy, promised under a mini-Constitutional law, known as Basic Law, will expire in 2047. But much before it, the Basic Law has weakened as central Government and its security apparatus increasingly encroach on Hong Kong. Abduction of booksellers and a Chinese-born billionaire are intriguing examples. And this pressure reflects a broader tightening of control over the island city under the Xi regime.
Hong Kong is an obvious target as it has a very strong and vocal community of pro-democracy supporters. And this is absolutely despised by the rulers in Beijing. Tens of thousands took part in the movement demanding free elections for Hong Kongers who seized control of downtown streets for 11 weeks in 2014. And recently a large crowd took out marches across the city commemorating thirty years of the crackdown on pro-democracy supporters by Beijing on June 4, 1989 at the historic Tiananmen Square. This is all that continuously disturbs the czar in Beijing. That is why the mainland Government feels that Hong Kong might become another point of security threat like that of Tibet, Xinxiang and Taiwan in the days to come.
Besides, the proposed extradition law would allow Hong Kong to detain and transfer people wanted in countries and territories with which it has no formal extradition agreements, including Taiwan and the mainland. The critics say that this would allow virtually anyone in Hong Kong to be picked up by the security sleuths for detention in China. Adding to the protesters’ woes is the common refrain that judges strictly follow the orders of the Communist Party. The Hong Kongers fear that this law would target not only criminals but also all the political activists. This extradition plan applies to 37 crimes for now. Although, interestingly it excludes political crimes, critics say that the law would in some point of time legalise the sort of abductions that has been taking place in Hong Kong. Popular apprehension is that this controversial Bill will in the long run end the unique judicial system of Hong Kong. And it brings home another nightmare to the island and its freedom-loving people that the move might sound the death knell for the “one country, two systems”.
However, at the same time, current activism will not guarantee a safe future for Hong Kong. Challenging Beijing would not produce anything, not even safety of the existing freedoms in Hong Kong. China can’t allow it to become a security concern.
Succinctly, today’s Hog Kong is deeply fractured. Beijing will have to take very cautious steps in moving forward. At this moment, removing Lam, before she completes her first term in office in 2022, would not be wise. If she is moved out of office, this will add fuel to the fire, because the Chief Executive of the city is chosen by a process which involves a pro-establishment selection panel and full endorsement by the Communist Party bosses in Beijing. On the other hand, the Hong Kongers have been demanding a free election for the Chief Executive for years now. So this is not the right time for Xi to think of an alternative to Lam.
However the adamant stance of demonstrators for the resignation of Lam would not solve any of their problems. Many veterans of the city are apprehensive that hardliners are poised to take up the reins of the administration of the island. But this time Xi will not take any chance. And if the current imbroglio continues, the Liaison Office of the city will have more opportunities to push the island for closer political integration with the mainland. Joshua Wong, the leader of the famous Umbrella Movement, too called for Lam’s resignation. But then, will there be any chance of revival of the status of Hong Kong if the current city chief leaves her office?
The way ahead for both Hong Kong and Bejing is a peaceful resolution of the problem. It’s time for Hong Kongers to look for solutions, not to create any more tensions with the mainland. China will surely not budge an inch. It would be more assertive. Also increasing violence would lessen sympathy for the pro-democracy supporters. However, yearning for freedom will continue despite Bejing’s inscrutable tactics to move the island closer to its power system.
(The writer is an expert on international affairs)
