It is a close battle between the BJP, Congress and other regional parties in the North-East. All parties have interests in mind, but whosoever wins, political stability should be the top priority for all-round development and inclusive growth of the State

The most neglected north-eastern region has come into focus in the political calculations of the BJP, the Congress and other regional parties in view of the ongoing Assembly elections in Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura. For decades, successive Governments at the Centre, often in collusion with regional allies, failed to develop the region. Resultantly, poverty, unemployment and criminal neglect of the region had become a hotbed of insurgency and violence. The three States have just gone to polls and the results are awaited on March 3, which will show whether the BJP will surge forward.

Why does the BJP want to expand its base in the North-EastIJ Having peaked in the north, the saffron party is now eyeing for the North-East and the south for expansion.

The region has traditionally been a Congress stronghold, till 2016, the Congress ruled five of the eight north-eastern States. Since Prime Minister Modi came to power, the BJP has wrested power in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur. Therefore, the current polls are a test for both the Congress, that is struggling to survive and the BJP, that is hoping to find a foothold in the region. 

After ousting the Congress in Assam in May 2016, the party took over Arunachal Pradesh six months later, luring 44 Congress MlAs, including Chief Minister Pema Khandu. In March 2017, the BJP formed the Government in Manipur even though the Congress emerged as the largest party in the polls. It has coalition partners heading Governments in Nagaland (Naga People’s Front) and Sikkim (Sikkim Democratic Front) and seeks to conquer the entire region by 2019.

 Second, in the expansion map of the BJP, which is focused around 120 seats that it has never won before, the North-East is crucial as it has 25 lok Sabha seats. 

Third, the BJP has been making systematic efforts and formed the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) in 2016 to unite regional local parties. This was part of the BJP’s efforts to spread its wings as a pan-national party. For this, the BJP formed an alliance with regional parties in the region instead of fighting with them. The BJP is also bonding with those outside the traditional vote-banks by wooing the Christians, tribals and ethnic groups. As a concession, it has promised that beef won’t be banned and the State’s culture won’t be interfered with if the party comes to power.

 Interestingly, from an average three per cent vote share of the BJP in the region, it went up to around 14 per cent in the 2014 lok Sabha election. BJP chief Amit Shah and Prime Minister Modi have visited the poll-bound States many times. To make the North East a ‘gateway to Southeast Asia’, connecting it to Bangladesh, Myanmar and Bhutan, the Prime Minister has promised balanced development in the region, which includes `40,000 crore investment in road and power infrastructure, railway projects and small airports under the UDAN scheme.

However, contradiction appears to be on the religious side. Nagaland, Mizoram and Meghalaya are overwhelmingly Christian-majority States, while Assam, Manipur and Tripura have significant tribal populations. Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh have a large number of Buddhists. The latest Economist magazine has pointed out that “the Hindu nationalist ruling party ( read the BJP) is trying to win over Christian regionalists”.

 The BJP is depending on anti-incumbency as a result of unemployment, lack of infrastructure and improper implementation of the Seventh Pay Commission. The Congress, on the other hand, is trying hard to swing back to power in Meghalaya with slim chances of winning in Nagaland and Tripura.

Tripura, where the left has been ruling since 1993, is where the BJP is hopeful of improvement. Even Chief Minister Manik Sarkar acknowledges that the BJP is the left’s main challenger. The party had emerged as second in the three by-polls since 2015. The BJP is wooing Tripura’s 32 per cent tribal population where the RSS has done good work. It has allied with the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT).

The Congress is struggling against depletion of its MlAs while the BJP is buoyed by defections to its fold from the Congress and the Trinamool Congress MlAs.

 In Nagaland, the ruling Naga People’s Front (NPF) unilaterally ended its alliance with the BJP recently. The party is depending on the National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), which has projected the ex-NPF Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio as its chief ministerial candidate. Nagaland suffers from lack of development and political corruption.

The framework agreement of a Naga accord signed between New Delhi and the Manipur-based National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah) in 2015 is creating some tension. Both parties will have to look for a viable coalition to win the State.

 In Meghalaya, which has 74.59 per cent Christians, the fight is between Congress Chief Minister Mukul Sangma and Conrad Kongkal Sangma of the National People’s Party, an alliance of the BJP. Despite charges of corruption, Chief Minister Mukul Sangma is confident of victory counting on the ‘stability card’ in a State notorious for interrupted regimes.  The United Democratic Party (UDP), the largest Opposition group in Meghalaya, and independent MlAs might emerge as kingmakers. 

Whoever wins or loses, there is an urgent need for developing the ‘Seven Sisters’. Stability and development are the two important needs of the region. The new Government should concentrate on this.

(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)