With both Ranil Wickremesinghe and Mahinda Rajapaksa in a race to prove their majority in Sri Lanka, the numbers game is on
The world is in a state of shock due to the events that unfolded in Sri Lanka. President Maithripala Sirisena appointed his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa as the new Prime Minister after sacking former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe last Friday, thereby ending a Constitutional crisis. The New York Times described the aftermath of the situation as: “The country’s political system has fallen apart in a matter of days, threatening to upend its emergence from decades of civil war.”
It is surprising why New Delhi is simply saying that it is “closely watching” the developments; while the United States, the European Union and others have observed that political parties over there must follow the Constitution. Interestingly, Tamil Nadu, which is just 28 miles as the crow flies from Sri Lanka, has commented on the recent developments. Indulging in domestic politics, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) chief MK Stalin promptly blamed the Modi Government for not taking care of the interests of the Sri Lankan Tamils. With no tall leader in the State, like Jayalalithaa or Karunanidhi, Stalin has taken the lead in criticising the Centre.
Though the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has not said anything so far, competition among the Dravidian parties on India’s Sri Lanka policy is always ripe. Insiders say that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is bargaining with the DMK for a possible post-poll alliance in return for early Assembly elections (due in 2020), which Stalin wants. The DMK supremo is raising his price by using the Sri Lankan issue.
Tamil Nadu should understand that Sri Lanka is changing. The issue is no longer between the Sinhalese and the Tamils. While the Tamils in the northern part of Lanka are still recovering from the havoc, there is no leader to take up the Tamil cause as things have changed now. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is on a decline. There are no other major leaders despite rumours about the LTTE regrouping. Within the Sri Lankan Tamil political parties, there is a lack of unity of approach towards a reconciliation.
The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) is considered moderate; whereas Sri Lanka’s Northern Province Chief Minister CV Vigneswaran, (who formed a new outfit, the Tamil People Alliance, some time ago) has drifted away from the TNA. Interestingly, Rajapaksa has gone ahead to make an alliance with the Tamils, projecting Muslims as their common enemy. Even when he met Prime Minister Narendra Modi last month in New Delhi, he found Muslims as the common ground.
How did Sri Lankan affairs reach such an impasse? It is no longer a secret that relations between Wickremesinghe and Sirisena have not been good. Their parties have been traditional rivals and they came together in 2015 for the sake of power. The President was also critical of investigations into human rights violations during Sri Lanka’s long civil war that ended in 2009. It reached a pitch recently when Wickremesinghe defeated Sirisena — inspired no-confidence motion against him.
The coup was planned in complete secrecy. Prior to that, Wickremesinghe’s visit to India from October 18 to 20 was to reassure New Delhi that it remains as an important trade and development partner for Sri Lanka, despite turbulent internal politics. It is not known whether Wickremesinghe knew about the possible coup and whether he discussed it with Modi.
There has been no clarity on why Sirisena and Rajapakse did not choose the constitutional path to remove Wickremsinghe. Obviously, the meeting between Sirisena and Rajapaksa earlier this month might have paved the way for the coup when Rajapaksa convinced the President that they should not fight among themselves and suggested a power-sharing scheme, by which he has been appointed as the Prime Minister.
Wickremesinghe had dug in his heels and insisted that he remained the Prime Minister and would prove his majority in Parliament. Technically, he is right that after Article 46 (2) of the 19th Amendment in 2015, the Prime Minister can only go out of office by death, resignation, by ceasing to be a member of Parliament, or if the Government as a whole has lost the confidence of Parliament.
Sirisena has cleverly prorogued the Parliament until November 16, perhaps to give enough time to Rajapaksa to poach on other parties as he has only 95 votes while Wickremesinghe has 106 votes. Wickremesinghe may have to struggle to keep his flock together. The Rajapaksa camp claims that 21 members of the United National Party (UNP) are ready to defect. Meanwhile, Rauff Hakeem, the leader of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, said that his party would firmly back Wickremesinghe. Two other constituent party leaders from minority Tamil and Muslim parties have also said that they will support Wickremesinghe. So, the number game is on.
The Sri Lankan crisis may continue for some more time. Until Rajapaksa or Wickremesinghe can demonstrate that they have the confidence of Parliament and force the President to accept the will of Parliament, the crisis will not be resolved. There is a possibility of the presidential and parliamentary polls to be preponed. As for India, ultimately we, have to deal with whoever wins. New Delhi should deal with the crisis with confidence and think of what is best in our interest. We have many levers and New Delhi should make use of all of them.
(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)
