Despite the huge majority in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is not going to get majority in the Upper House just yet. Although after the biennial elections scheduled for next year, the BJP will become the largest party in the Rajya Sabha, but it will have to wait some more
The general perception after the BJP’s impressive victory in Uttar Pradesh was that the party will get a boost in the Rajya Sabha, as a result of which the Central Government won’t face hurdles in the passage of several Bills. But this is not entirely true. Despite the huge majority in UP, the BJP is not going to get majority in the Upper House just yet. Although after the biennial elections scheduled for next year, the BJP will become the largest party in the Rajya Sabha, but it will have to wait some more.
This year, elections will be held for 10 seats of the Rajya Sabha. But of these, six are from West Bengal. In all likelihood, the Congress will get one seat and the rest will go to the TMC. CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury might also not win from West Bengal this time. Apart from this, three seats are from Gujarat, and the BJP is expected to get two of these. Central Minister Smriti Irani and Dilip Pandya are going to retire. One seat of Gujarat belongs to the Congress and will return to it. With this, the BJP won’t get the benefit of any seat from Gujarat and WB. In Goa, the seat of Congress’s Shantaram Naik will be vacated and there will be a big fight for it.
So this year, the picture of the Rajya Sabha will remain the same. That means the Congress will be at 59 and the BJP at 56 seats. But this scenario is bound to change next year. The BJP will add seven more seats to its kitty from UP in the biennial elections, which will be held in April-May next year. Next year, 10 seats will be vacated from UP. Of these, one belongs to Vinay Katiyar, which is going to be vacated. According to calculations, the SP-Congress combine and the BSP will get two seats, and the BJP will get eight. Thus, the BJP tally will be up by seven seats.
Six seats will be vacated from Bihar; seats of Ravi Shankar Prasad and Dharmendra Pradhan belong to the BJP. There, the BJP will be losing one seat. From Rajasthan, the party will increase its count by two seats. From Jharkhand, two seats are being vacated and if the BJP wins both, the count will go up by two more.
From Maharashtra, six seats will be vacated by next year; three of them belong to the BJP and the rest to the Shiv Sena. There, the BJP will be up by one seat only. In Madhya Pradesh, five seats will be vacated and four belong to the BJP, so there is no benefit from this State. From Haryana, the BJP might get the benefit of one seat. On the whole, the party could get the advantage of 13 or 14 seats, and the maximum number will reach 70. The magic number in the Rajya Sabha is 123. The NDA has 80 MPs, and this figure can go up to 94.
CONTROVERSY OVER EVMs
After an embarrassing electoral defeat, BSP leader Mayawati had alleged that there were irregularities in the EVMs and demanded an investigation. She went on to claim that when people were pressing the BSP’s button, the votes were going to the BJP. Akhilesh Yadav, too, backed her demand for a probe. In his media briefing, he said that if someone has levelled an allegation, the Government must look into it. Soon after Akhilesh, the Congress also raised the issue and supported Mayawati, with Harish Rawat and lalu Prasad Yadav following suit.
Controversy over EVMs is not new. The parties which are defeated always raise questions on the efficacy of these machines. In 2009, when the Manmohan Singh-led UPA Government had won, Subramanian Swamy had raised the issue. He had even gone to the Supreme Court. But soon after, the controversy died down. At that time, the Congress had rejected all allegations and now the BJP is doing the same.
However, after the 2009 elections, Hari K Prasad, an engineer, had claimed it was not too difficult to tamper with the EVM. At that time, he was arrested by the Congress Government of Andhra Pradesh. After Mayawati’s recent claims, a similar story has surfaced again. Alex Helderman, a Professor of electrical engineering, has claimed that EVMs in India are vulnerable to fraud. This is a fact that there has been one or the other row over EVMs in almost all developed countries of the world, which is why countries like the US and UK have shifted to ballot papers.
What is interesting is that voting through ballot in India had also been in question. In 1971, when Indira Gandhi had won with a huge margin, Jan Sangh leader Balraj Madhok had alleged that the Congress won with the help of an invisible ink imported from Russia. He had alleged that there was already a mark before the Congress symbol made using the invisible ink. He had said that later, this mark before the Congress name became visible and the one before Jan Sangh got dissolved. It is another matter that at that time, nobody took him seriously.
BSP-CONGRESS-SP COMBINEIJ
Is there in any chance of a Bihar-style Mahagathbandhan happening in UPIJ After the election results, people are speculating that the SP, BSP, and Congress could form a grand alliance. Probably, it will come into existence at the time of the Rajya Sabha elections next year. Mayawati’s Rajya Sabha tenure is going to end next year. She can’t win her seat again on her own as she has only 19 MlAs.
By the next year, 10 Rajya Sabha seats are being vacated from UP. To win one seat, 38 votes are required. If Mayawati gets seven votes of the Congress and the remaining nine votes of the Samajwadi Party, then she can manage to win. These three parties together have 73 seats and to win two seats, 76 votes are required. Remaining eight seats will go to the BJP.
If the three parties come together for the Rajya Sabha, then they could also forge an alliance for the 2019 lok Sabha Elections. It is being said that at this time, the three parties are under a compulsion to join hands. At present, they will feel comfortable in going into an alliance because the BSP doesn’t have any seat. The Samajwadi Party has five seats and the Congress has two. That is why it will be easier for them to form a united front. With the increasing strength of the BJP, the negotiating power of the three parties has gone down and they might just tie up keeping their respective interests aside.
DEFEAT OF RUlING PARTIES
A trend worth noting is that in the recent Assembly Elections for five States, the ruling party has changed everywhere. Before this, there was a trend of return of the ruling party. last year, election was held in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, and ruling parties had seized power again. Before that, the ruling party of Bihar — the JDU — had grabbed power, and the Government was formed under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. In the Delhi Assembly Elections, Arvind Kejriwal had returned to power with a thumping majority.
But this time, power transfer took place in all five States. In Manipur, Okram Ibobi Singh didn’t face much anti-incumbency factor despite being in power for 15 years, but still could not save his chair. In Goa, there was a strong wave of anti-incumbency. Former CM laxmikant Parsekar and his six ministers were defeated. The ruling BJP was reduced to 13 seats from 21, but despite that, the party formed the Government again with the help of small parties and Independent MlAs. In UP, Uttarakhand, and Punjab, people gave a clear mandate and the ruling party was defeated. In Punjab, ruling Akali Dal didn’t become the main Opposition party.
