India’s response to provocations from the across the border must not be along predictable lines, which it has been over the decades. It must take the enemy by surprise with its, often, out-of-proportion retaliation

Since our independence we as a nation are often at our wits end in adopting measures to deal with a hostile and errant neighbor like Pakistan. We have gone through four wars, achieved decisive victory in all, held 93,000 prisoners of war after 1971, and yet the attacks by way of ceasefire violations and terror proxies continue unabated at Pakistan’s behest. Do we have a national doctrine to respond to challenges thrown at usIJ

Our basic problem always has been the predictability of our response. Sample the following: We have a no first-use of nuclear weapon policy; we are a responsible nuclear power; we are a professional Army that do not commit barbaric acts (like mutilation of a soldier’s body);  in thousands of years of our history, we have never attacked another nation nor coveted the other’s land or territory.

The overall narrative has been to speak/posture from a high moral ground with predictable responses. Anger and over the top exhibition of emotions (whenever we are attacked), raucous debates in the media and finally acceptance of casualties as an act of god (karma/ kismet), has been the template.

The answers to our problems lie in implementing a few principles of quantum physics. One of the principles is randomness. One of the most surprising and (historically, at least) controversial aspects of quantum physics is that it’s impossible to predict with certainty the outcome of a single experiment on a quantum system. When physicists predict the outcome of an experiment, the prediction takes the form of a probability for finding each of the particular possible outcomes, and comparisons between theory and experiment involve inferring probability distributions from many repeated experiments.

In all discussions and debates on military doctrine, we hear of our response ‘going up the escalatory ladder’ (this itself is predictable). No one has ever spoken of a response which could be unpredictable, out of proportion (to punish), asymmetrical or in a geographically tangential landscape. A soldier is martyred in Poonch sector, and our response invariably is to punish Pakistani bunkers or posts along the borderl in and around Poonch. Our aim seems to contain the ceasefire violation by the adversary in the same geographical plane/area.

The first of the Indian military doctrines ever thought and tested in an exercise (Operation Brasstacks) was the Sundarji doctrine (1984-2004) named after General Krishnaswamy Sundarji, which envisaged seven holding Corps along the borders and three strike Corps (camping in the interiors) to mobilise and render sledgehammer blows to puncture through enemy defence line and penetrate deep to destroy Pakistan's fighting capability. This, as we all know, came a cropper during Operation Parakram, when we took 28 days to mobilise and build up our forces at the border (by then the surprise factor was lost).

Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took over office on 26 May 2014, there is some talk of a Modi -Ajit Doval doctrine (2014-2016), which has some fantasy components, more in the realm of imagination than anything in concrete terms for military planning or national security. Quantum Randomisation National Doctrine is a holistic doctrine of politico-military statecraft. The essential components are:

 Economic measures. Removal of MFN status, curtailing trade, disallowing movement of farm produce from Kashmir to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, economic sanctions.

 Diplomatic pressure. Isolating Pakistan at every world forum, UN resolutions, sanctions, own permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council etc.

 Geographical manipulation. Controlling/damming the flow of rivers from upper riparian States, flooding Pakistan when required, causing smog like conditions along the borders by artificial means (to be used in conjunction with military operations).

 leadership disenchantment. Tailing the top 100 military and political leaders of Pakistan, their bank accounts, assets, properties, children’s education, overseas accounts, and planting leaks in the media with evidence to create disenchantment in the masses with their leadership of the day, creating a divide between the have’s & have not’s, as there are glaring differences in incomes.

 Cultural invasion. Briefing top 20 directors (films/ TV) on the need for nationalistic fervour and allowing them artistic freedom to produce films that project our nation as the promised land of ‘milk & honey’ with great opportunities for leading quality life. Beaming quality serials/ programmes across the border and getting the population of Pakistan hooked to watching Indian content.

 Cultivating allies. Afghanistan, Iran, the US, the UK, Germany, France and Japan are natural allies. Russia needs to be cultivated as a bulwark against China. Out of the 56 Islamic countries, we need to use their internal animosities against one another as our base for nurturing allies.

 Cyber attacks. This is the field where we as a nation can excel.  From hacking into social media accounts of Pakistan’s chatterati to military software to bank accounts — everything is in the realm of the possible. A strong cyber cell working under the Ministry of Defence with the best Indian brains, can achieve dividends.

 International Waters. Our Navy and Coast Guard should always be testing the waters to breach Pakistan’s national waters and constantly pick up its fishermen/ small boat owners etc.

 Unstable borders. The borders in J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat should be constantly subjected to uncertainty and instability of our choosing by stimulated border skirmishes, air violations by our Air Force, drone movements, artillery fire assaults, arming Baloch rebels, nudging Afghanistan to create unstable conditions along its borders with Pakistan and feeding Iran in real time about atrocities against the Shias in Pakistan. The more the borders remain unstable, the  more the Pakistani top military leadership will remain engaged in ‘dousing bushfires’.

 Joint Exercises. Conducting joint military exercises with Israel, the US, Russia and Japan, close to the Pakistan border, as military training, can send shivers down the spine of the most battle-hardened General. One can never guess when such an exercise can turn into a limited operation to take out terror leaders/ lay siege to nuclear assets etc.

 Military option. The repercussion of provoking the Indian military to strike should be out of proportion to the damage caused. All holding Corps commanders must have the freedom to plan and execute  limited operations in their area of influence. A centrally planned riposte should follow at the place of our choosing. Our military strategy should be built around unpredictable, decentralised nature of our response.

(The writer is a retired Colonel of the Indian Army)