Asia's century, and now Donald Trump's arrival

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Asia's century, and now Donald Trump's arrival

Friday, 18 November 2016 | RK Pachauri

Asia's century, and now Donald Trump's arrival

If countries of this continent respect diversity internally, they would also show the same respect internationally. It would require some visionary leaders who forge an understanding within and across countries

The result of the US presidential election has created widespread stir across the world, and many citizens in the US as well as elsewhere have expressed deep concern and consternation at the election of Donald Trump, which seemed like a remote possibility just a day before the election was held.

Candidate Trump made statements and was responsible for several gaffes, which alienated a large section of the population in the US, and hence his election as the President of the US has come as a massive shock to many across the world.

Some commentators have gone to the extent of concluding that this election represents the end of America as they have known it. Clearly, American society appears deeply divided, and it would be a great challenge for the new President to heal the wounds which have been created by the most divisive presidential election in recent American history. Trump’s ability to carry all sections of society seems at odds with his utterances and the positions that he has taken not only during the election campaign but throughout his career.

It would not be an exaggeration to state that this election represents to a large extent the decline of the US as a global power and a realisation that perhaps somebody completely outside the system would be best suited to revive what could be called “the great American dream”, which is obviously fading away with changes that are taking place all across the globe. 

Indians have, perhaps, not fully comprehended and accepted the nature of change that is taking place across the world.  The collapse of the Soviet Union and the recent re-assertion of Russia as a power on the global stage, are significant. The dramatic rise of China as an economic and military power has changed the balance of global strength substantially.

Not only is Chinese influence now acknowledged and evident in Africa, latin America and even parts of Europe, but it certainly has a major impact on the Asian continent.

The 20th century was the century of the US, and the 21st is expected to be Asia’s century.  Mahatma Gandhi had the vision to foresee the resurgence of Asia as a sequel to independence in several parts of this continent.  It was in articulation of this vision, and its echo in several other capitals of Asia, that the Asian Relations Conference was organised in India during March-April, 1947.

Prominent participants and various leaders attended this conference from countries as diverse as Afghanistan, Bhutan, Burma and Mongolia. Several other countries, including Australia, the Arab league nations, Britain, the Soviet Union and the US, and the United Nations, sent observers to this event.

In 1987, the Government of India convened an Asian Relations Commemorative Conference to review and redefine what had emerged from the original conference in 1947.  Yet, the strategic implications of these two sets of high-level and meaningful deliberations have not really been reflected in the perceptions and policies of countries in the region. Perhaps the altered scenario brought into focus by Donald Trump’s election, and what can be seen as the fading away of the US as the world’s sole superpower requires a reappraisal of the Asian identity. If we were to look at one single area of global developments and challenges, the leadership of the US has even at the best of times been rather short-sighted.

The reference here is to action to deal with climate change, which is not only the most important and defining challenge of our time, but a clear outcome of the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, dominated by the US.  And yet, the US has been dragging its feet in adopting policies and actions by which it shows leadership for effectively meeting the challenge of climate change.

Donald Trump has already stated that he does not believe in human responsibility for climate change, and would, therefore, withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Clearly, it is for the most vulnerable nations of the world, which include the small island states and low-lying countries like Bangladesh, perilously vulnerable to the dangers of sea level rise and countries of Central America and the Caribbean region, prone to the increase in extreme events and hurricanes,to define the agenda for the world. It is for Asia to take the lead in global initiatives in this arena.

It can be said that China, for instance, has already reduced its emissions, not only because of slowdown of its economy but its determined shift away from massive use of coal as a source of energy. In other words, if the US under the new leadership is not willing to accept its responsibility for action, the rest of the world should join hands and move on with what is needed, leaving the US behind.

Asia is a continent of diversity, but we share common interests. Sarojini Naidu, who was the president of the 1947 Asian Relations Conference, stated, “Rather, the great diversity of Asian culture has cemented the unity of the Asian people. Who wants monotonous cultureIJ Who wants a uniform cultureIJ Who wants a colourless cultureIJ Who wants one country to imitate anotherIJ It is rather the richness and variety, the diversity and sometimes of conflicts of one culture with another, that is the guarantee and prophecy of a real, abiding and dynamic unity.”

The spirit expressed in these words needs to be recaptured not only for the Asian continent as a whole, but within each nation, including India where intolerance is a serious threat to the country’s cultural and religious diversity. If countries of this continent respect diversity internally, they would also show the same respect internationally. But this would require some visionary leaders who forge an understanding within and across countries.

The real question is, whether we have such leaders on the scene today. If we do not, then clearly we would have failed in anticipating some of the changes that are taking place globally and in particular the opportunities for Asia as a sequel to Donald Trump’s election as President.

(The writer is former chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2002-2015) 

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