India has taken a bipartisan approach to economic relations with Pakistan. The Gurdaspur terror attack may not change this

The Gurdaspur terror attack has once again brought to focus the issue of internal security and external threat in India. The fact that terrorists from across the border entered in broad daylight and killed innocent civilians and police personnel is a wake up call for us to strengthen our intelligence network and police force.

This incident is grave not only because this is the first major terror strike in Punjab in eight years but also because until now, Jammu & Kashmir had been their target. This expansion of terror has to be tackled with immediate attention.

This terror attack can have repercussions at the foreign and domestic policy levels. At the foreign policy level, it poses a challenge to the normalisation efforts presently underway between India and Pakistan. Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed office, his foreign policy initiatives towards Pakistan has seen a roller coaster ride.

Will this terror attack derail India’s Pakistan policyIJ All indications are that in spite of the provocation, resumption of talks with Pakistan is set to go ahead. At the same time, the Union Government has not given-up the option of retaliation on terror attacks as Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar described on July 16, when Indian forces retaliated to Pakistan’s firing in Jammu calling it “reasonable but firm”. At the most, National Security Adviser-level talks might be deferred for a few weeks as in any case, no dates have yet been finalised.

First, the Government has been cautious in dealing with the situation and there has been no knee jerk reactions. It appears as if the Government is still collecting evidence and, therefore, is not in a hurry to make any hasty statement.

Second, efforts for resumption of dialogue with Pakistan started only recently. Since then, things started moving in the right direction and the recent meet in Ufa was also a part of that effort. Therefore, it is too early to say that engagement with Pakistan should be abandoned.

Third, Mr Modi’s foreign policy is likely to be driven by trade and commerce. As the Chief Minister of Gujarat, he reached out to a number of countries including China. He also had interactions with business delegations from Karachi. Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, an ally of the BJP, both in Punjab and at the Centre, has been seeking greater trade routes with Pakistan and so did his predecessor Captain Amarinder Singh. In Punjab, the State Government and the chambers of commerce have been lobbying for opening up the Hussainiwala-Kasur land route for trade, in addition to the Wagah-Attari border.

So, we can say that there is a bipartisan approach on economic relations with Pakistan. This terror attack may not change this attitude. Similarly, in Jammu & Kashmir, Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed is stressing for opening up more routes and trade relations with Pakistan. Rajasthan has been demanding to open the Munabao-Khokhrapar land route for trade, Gujarat too has been urging the Centre to open land routes for trade with Sindh.

Fortunately, for Mr Modi, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Gujarat and Rajasthan are ruled by the BJP. Therefore, any policy implementation by the Centre will not face any difficulty. Moreover, Mr Modi has been talking of a ‘neighbors first’ policy which stresses on connectivity, contacts and cooperation. In the past one year, Mr Modi has been trying to demonstrate that he is neither the bully as some critics believe him to be, nor the foreign policy weakling.

On the domestic level, the first signal came from Mr Badal, who made a significant remark when he said, “The terrorists didn’t come from Punjab, they came from the border. If there was an input then it was their (the Ministry of Home Afaairs) job to seal the border. If there was input why wasn’t the border sealedIJ” 

Another NDA ally, the Shiv Sena which has always opposed to India having talks with the neighbor, does not hesitate to oppose some of the policies of the BJP. Several activists of the Shiv Sena burnt flags of Pakistan in Phagwara to protest against the Gurdaspur terror attack.

Many Pakistani watchers are of the view that resumption of dialogue should not be given up and engagement is the best way to deal with Pakistan. This can be done only when there is a civilian Government. At the same time, New Delhi should send a signal to Pakistan that terror strikes like this will be dealt with equal force.