Jason Nicholls, senior meteorologist and manager of international forecasting with AccuWeather, tells SHAlINI SAKSENA that there will be drought like conditions this monsoon with the exception along southwest coast of the country

Do you think that droughts in India are likely to become a regular featureIJ If yes, whyIJ

I don’t think drought will be a regular feature. In fact, rainfall last year was near above normal. The problem this year is that El Nino has delayed the onset in the country.

How will El Nino impact IndiaIJ Why is it so fearedIJ

El Nino conditions have already lead to slow start to the monsoon this year despite El Nino being declared. It typically disrupts the circulation that leads to the monsoonal rains resulting in 90 per cent of El Nino’s causing below normal rainfall across India with drought in 65 per cent of El Nino onset years. Another factor is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which can help enhance rainfall in a positive phase, while a negative phase disrupts the monsoon. The IOD will be neutral this summer so will do little to counteract the disruptive nature of El Nino on India’s monsoon.

What is the reason for less than normal rainfall in IndiaIJ

The main reason for the below normal rainfall this year is due to the onset of El Nino by late July. However, El Nino like conditions are already evident worldwide like the below normal rainfall in southeast Asia and the late start to the monsoon.

Can we attribute this kind of climate to global warmingIJ

The lack of rain across India this year is more a function of El Nino or ocean water temperatures across the Pacific and cannot be tied to global warming.

For the past few years, it rains when not needed (rains in April when the crop has been cut or seeds sown) and not rain when needed. Why is this happeningIJ

Monsoon rains were at least normal across most of India over the past couple of years, and occasionally pre monsoonal rains do break out. We say that this past April which is also fairly common during El Nino onset years.

How will the drought in India impact neighboring countriesIJ

The delayed start to the monsoon and below normal rainfall will certainly impact Pakistan, which is another area that we are worried about drought. The monsoon has been delayed reaching Bangladesh but will see an increase in rain over the next week or so, but overall, the nation will also likely be drier than normal this summer.

Why do certain parts in India face drought while others are floodedIJ

The nature of the monsoon is that it can set up and stall over a certain area, leading to flooding in some areas while missing others. Disturbances within the overall monsoon pattern can also enhance rainfall over certain areas leading to flooding downpours. In general though, monsoon rain is not always uniform and same perturbations in the atmosphere can enhance or suppress rainfall in a given area.

Given the present scenario, where does India stand this monsoon seasonIJ

We expected most of India to have below normal rainfall and drought conditions this monsoon. The exception looks to be along the southwest coast.