Islamist threat looms large on Sochi Games
The twin bombings in the southern Russian city of Volvograd, which come on the heels of an almost identical terror attack in the same city in October, is a horrific reminder of the Islamist threat that looms large on the Winter Olympics in Sochi. To be held between February 7 and 23, 2014, the high-profile Games have become an attractive target for insurgent groups operating in the Muslim-majority, autonomous republics of the Caucasus. Earlier this year, Doku Umarov, a jihadi leader from the Chechen Republic, urged his followers to “use maximum force” and stop the Games, which he described as “Satanic dancing”, from proceeding “on the bones of our ancestors, the bones of many dead Muslims”. While it remains unclear if the two suicide bombers who attacked Volvograd, first at a crowded railroad station on Sunday and then in a trolley bus on Monday, were affiliated with Umarov's group, most agree that they were influenced by the man commonly known as ‘Russia's Bin laden'. At first glance, the terrorists' destination choice may seem odd give that the resort town of Sochi lies almost 690 kilometres southwest of Volgograd. But the latter is close to the Caucasus Republics and a major transportation hub that connects the region to Moscow, which possibly explains why it has been targeted. Collectively, the bombings have claimed a few dozen lives already — and the death toll is still rising — making them one of the most deadly attacks to have hit the Russian heartland in recent years. Moreover, no other country hosting an Olympics game has witnessed terror strikes, on this scale, so close to the main event in recent memory.
Understandably, the attacks have cast a shadow on President Vladimir Putin's promise that the Sochi Olympics will be the safest ever. Of course, given the formidable security arrangement that he is putting in place — Sochi, for instance, will be under effective lockdown from January 7 — there is reason enough to hope that he will be able to keep his word. But assuming even that all goes well at the Games, the chances of more terror attacks, outside and away from Sochi, in other parts of the country cannot be written off. Even a low profile incident at this time will be portrayed as a major victory by the Islamists.
But the debate on whether there may be more such attacks in run up to the Games is only relevant in the short term. In the long term, Kremlin will remain saddled with the centuries-old problem of dealing with large swathes of land that it can neither fully absorb nor relinquish entirely. Many had hoped that President Putin's pacifist policies would bring about a certain degree of peace and stability — he had, after all, managed to take the sting out of the Chechen movement and, in fact, the Sochi Olympics was supposed to be his showcase event for how the jihadis had been brought under control. But as this week's events show, the insurgency is far from being neutralised. Sure, in Chechnya for instance, it is not at the same level as it operated in the 90s but post-2008, the movement has been on the upswing. Moreover, the situation in the neighbouring Republic of Dagestan has worsened considerably with Moscow's hold on that region becoming increasingly tenuous.
