Even when they were in power, the Maoists considerably shed their animosity towards India. Now it is incumbent upon its giant southern neighbour to reciprocate and help the Maoists’ take the process of democratic transition forward
The second Constituent Assembly elections in Nepal are finally over proving all skeptics wrong. Even ten days before the polls, there were doubts whether the election would take place at all. The split-away faction of the Maoist party, led by Mohan Baidya Kiran, along with 32 other minor political parties had threatened to disrupt the polls. It had declared a total strike (or banda, as they call in Nepal) from November 11 onwards till the elections on November 19, 2013. However, the will of the vast majority prevailed and a free and fair election was conducted successfully.
All the major political parties, united in their determination to take the Constitution drafting process forward, succeeded in appealing to the better sense of the people, who turned up in hordes to exercise their franchise. The transitional neutral Government conducting the elections demonstrated enough resolve to conduct the polls and ensured enough security to the people to come out a cast their ballots. The polling was a record 70 per cent. Although some critics held that the overall number of votes cast was less than the previous election, the number was too large to be dismissed squarely.
To be in Nepal when such high-voltage political drama was taking place was a unique experience. You were bound to be taken in by the apathy of the people in certain quarters, and the rapturous mood of the campaigners in others. As one moved from one district to another, one could see that people were distinctly disappointed with their existing crop of leadership, but at the same time there was a desire to participate in the elections and take the process of democratic transition forward. We always have nay-sayers in every society like the Baidya faction of the Maoists in Nepal, but you could see clearly that they could not be able to stop the people from voting.
Another perceptible trend was the disillusionment of the people with the Maoists. Strangely quite, the Nepalese people were a little less charitable while assessing the performance of the Maoist governments during the last five years (2008-2013). The efforts of Maoist leaders like Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai to mainstream an erstwhile insurgent group were lost on the people. The Maoist leaders were commonly held as corrupt, venal, self-seeking, and as bad as, if not worse than, others. Their stance on federalism was regarded by most people, as divisive and an exercise in populism to garner the votes of the ethnic minority (the janajatis). In fact, many people held that ethnic and identity-based federalism as advocated by the Maoists would be a recipe for disaster and lead to division of Nepal.
One could also sense a quiet sympathy building up among the people in favour of a Hindu state and many people in Nepal today regard the Maoist emphasis on secularism as an unnecessary political stunt which has led to aggressive missionary activities all over Nepal and especially in the Terai belt bordering India. Moreover, the factionalism within the Maoist ranks, people believed, had removed the edge they had over other parties because of their dedicated cadre base. The cumulative impact of all this had to go against the Maoists.
Voters not surprises
Against this setting, the results of the elections have not been quite different from what the Nepalese people had expected. The Maoists have been pushed to the third position. Taking advantage of a sweeping anti-incumbency wave, the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist leninist (CPN-UMl) have stolen the thunder away from the Maoists, both in first-past-the-post (FPTP) system and proportional representation (PR or Samanupati) ballots. In the FPTP ballot, the Maoists managed to secure only 26 seats compared to 120 seats in the last elections. In comparison, NC has jumped from 37 to 105 and UMl has improved its position from 33 to 91.
The popular concern about the future of Hinduism has benefitted two factions of Rashtriya Prajatantra Party, which have secured the fourth and fifth positions in the PR ballot. Together they had polled about 375,000 votes in the PR ballot. This time they have increased their tally to about 865,000 votes. But on the whole, their performance has been much less significant than what was expected because of proclamations in favour of a Hindu state by a very loud and vocal minority on the streets of Nepal. Another important development has been the political decline of the Madhesh-based political parties, because of factionalism and infighting amongst different groups in the Terai region.
On the whole, the verdict of the electorate has been far more sagacious than one would have expected. In view of the fact that Nepal has an extremely fractured polity, one cannot expect an absolute majority for any political party in the Constituent Assembly. If Nepal has to make any progress, political parties will have to generate a consensus among them to finalise a Constitution and then learn the politics of coalition-building to run the politics and governance of the country in an effective manner. The Constitution-making process is deadlocked on issues like federalism and form of Government. The Nepalese political leadership has demonstrated enough maturity in handling even thornier issues like integration of the Maoist combatants in the past. One should not underestimate their capacity to evolve political agreements in a progressive manner. Every country has its own way of manufacturing political consensus, and Nepalese politicians should not be hurried to any position on any of the difficult issues they are wrestling with at the moment.
Expectations from India
Both as an influential neighbour and as the largest democracy in the world, India must do everything possible to enable a political consensus to strengthen the process of democratic transition by bringing the ongoing Constitution-making exercise to a successful conclusion. The first step in this direction should be a well-directed diplomatic effort to keep the Maoists engaged in the process. A national unity Government is thus the need of the hour. It has to be appreciated that the Maoist faction led by Prachanda has displayed enormous restraint and poise in joining the political mainstream. They have considerably changed their attitude and approach towards India. One did not come across any instance of Maoists launching any assault against India in their campaigns in the last elections.
Take Maoists on board
It is heartening to find the leadership of the party — after initial allegations of international conspiracy to defeat the Maoists — coming back to join the process rather than stay away and court international opprobrium. This is a healthy sign. One must not forget that the Maoists have secured about 1.4 million votes in the PR ballot, which suggests that they do have significant support base in spite of internal strife and a giant anti-incumbency wave sweeping against them. The key to stabilise Nepal lies in ensuring continuing mainstreaming of the Maoists in the political process of Nepal despite their defeat.
(The writer is Senior Fellow and Coordinator, South Asia Centre, IDSA, New Delhi)
