Delayed poll may lead to a constitutional crisis

With the political crisis in the Maldives continuing to escalate, the archipelagic nation is now on the verge of a constitutional logjam. After the police intervened, following a judicial order, and prevented the Electoral Commission from holding the presidential re-election on October 19, polling has now been postponed to November 9 and a run-off, in case no single candidate receives a majority, scheduled for November 16. The problem here is that the tenure of the incumbent regime expires on November 11. So, unless the November 9 election throws up a clear winner which is highly unlikely, Maldives will be left without a Government after November 11. This is only the latest in a series of twists and turns that the Maldivian electoral process has taken since February 2012, and there is now a real and imminent danger that the country will fall off the democratic path altogether. Already, the past year-and-half has seen a definite resurgence of those loyal to Mr Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, the autocrat who ruled the archipelago for three decades before he was defeated by Mr Mohamed Nasheed in the 2008 election. This year, Mr Nasheed had again secured the maximum number of votes (45 per cent) in the September 7 election — which was annulled by the Supreme Court following charges of electoral fraud and re-election ordered on October 19. Mr Gayoom's half-brother Abdullah Yameen placed second while businessman Gasim Ibrahim trailed him by less than two percentage points. Interestingly, the fact that these two men failed to ratify the voter list for the October 19 poll was one of the reasons why the re-election could not be held on that date.

Overall, the manner in which a segment of the political establishment in Male has sought to derail the electoral process in the island nation points to a return of the old guard. In this context, the role of the judiciary and the police in throwing the election schedule off track also cannot be overlooked. It is no coincidence that these two institutions played a key role in precipitating the political crisis back in 2012. The judiciary, in particular, is known to be staffed by Gayoom-era loyalists who have only limited knowledge about modern jurisprudence but were appointed based on their knowledge of Sharia'h. Clearly, large-scale institutional reforms are necessary if democracy has to be sustained in the Maldives but that can only happen after a legitimate Government that enjoys the mandate of the people takes charge. For that, all stakeholders need to come together and chalk out a consensus plan. Ideally, India should have been able to play a strong and supportive role in this, but that does not seem to be happening. Earlier, New Delhi had managed to ensure that Mr Nasheed, a long-standing friend of India's, was allowed to at least contest the election but this time when it tried to insist on timely poll, it was summarily snubbed. The situation bodes well neither for Male nor New Delhi.