In the season of election campaigning, Assam is witnessing another kind of a showdown — between the Tarun Gogoi-led Congress Government and United liberation Front of Asom commander-in-chief Paresh Barua. As of now Gogoi seems to be on the back foot, despite the peace initiative taken by Arabinda Rajkhowa, leader of the separatist group’s faction.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh cancelled his March 28 proposed visit to the State after the Barua-led UlFA group called Assam bandh on the day to protest the Prime Minister’s visit. Barua is a staunch opponent of the ongoing peace talks. Though other reasons have been cited now by Congress leaders Digvijay Singh and Gogoi for the cancellation of the trip, the general public perception here is that the Government, mindful of the support Barua can drum up, decided to avoid embarrassment in poll times. According to the people The Pioneer spoke to, with several of them unwilling to come on record, the UlFA factor would be a key issue in the Assembly elections.

Incidentally, it was only recently that Gogoi called the UlFA chief “weak and irrelevant”, after almost the entire senior leadership of the group, including its chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa, deserted the Barua faction and came out in support of the peace process with the Union Government.

The election will, therefore, be a litmus test for the elusive commander-in-chief of the organisation that has overtly or covertly determined many an electoral fate in the State in the past three decades of its existence. People said the UlFA leader could “go to any extent” to demonstrate his clout during the poll season. In fact, he has already begun the exercise by issuing a threat to the ruling Congress and allegedly recently attacking the State Congress headquarters here in the capital.

The Barua faction has also said in a statement that they would impose a bandh whenever the Prime Minister visited Assam in the coming days. In this backdrop, it remains to be seen whether the Prime Minister keeps date with the State, expected on April 2. Senior security officials here are unwilling to take the threats lightly as they believe Barua has more than nuisance value, despite being sidelined both by the Government and his own organisation.

UlFA has always played a key role in the formation of Governments at Dispur from the early 90s itself. Since the 1991 election, the fate of both the State Assembly and the lok Sabha seats from Assam has been determined to a large extent by the positions taken by this banned organisation. Even the Gogoi regime is alleged to have come to power — first in 2001 and then again in 2006 — with the support of the banned organisation. A political observer said a tactical alliance with UlFA over the past decade helped the Congress handsomely in retaining power. But Gogoi has now discarded Barua and the two are rivals. One is determined to have a successful election and cock a snook at the UlFA leader, while the other would want to disrupt the process and prove his relevance in the changed scenario.

Barua has given a call to overthrow the Congress Government and has asked the people to stay away from Congress meetings and rallies. This has given the Chief Minister a handle to attack his political opponents, by saying that they are hand in glove with the banned outfit’s leader.