Helped by a divided Opposition, the Congress has an edge in the first phase of election to 62 Assembly constituencies that go to poll in Assam on Monday. But the Opposition Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the BJP are expected to perform much better than in the 2006 State election, as a result of which the Congress could end up with fewer seats and face upsets in many constituencies.

Voting will take place in the three districts of the Barak valley (Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi), the two hill districts (Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao), and eight districts of the Brahmaputra valley in Upper Assam (Golaghat, Jorhat, Sivasagar, Dibrugarh, Tinsukia, Dhemaji, lakhimpur and Sonitpur). Of the 62 constituencies, the Congress has a strong base in 37, of which it is near-certain to win 22. In the rest, it faces stiff opposition.

Similarly, the AGP has good influence in 23 constituencies, of which observers here say it is almost certain to bag 10. The BJP, which has strongly campaigned in the region and enjoys a grassroots presence in the State, is influential in 18 constituencies. Ground indications are that it could bag as many as eight seats while being the determining factor in the others.

One of the most important features that emerged during the course of the election is the remarkable rise of the BJP in Upper Assam, especially in the belt of tea tribes, which has always been the Congress’ most loyal constituency.

“The BJP’s rise in the areas dominated by tea tribes should not just be seen from an election point of view. The BJP will definitely give a tough fight to Congress in tea garden areas, but this new equation will also affect the long-term political scene here,” Sanjib Saikia of Dibrugarh district said.

“The BJP’s groundwork among the tea tribes and workers for the last couple of years seems to have begun paying dividends,” Ramen Bhuyan, a resident of Tinsukia district, observed.

In most constituencies going to poll in this phase, the main and direct contest is between the ruling Congress and the main Opposition AGP.

In some other constituencies, it is going to be an intriguing triangular contest among the Congress, AGP and BJP.

If the Congress — despite facing anti-incumbency mood and charges of poor governance and corruption — still has an edge, it is because of a lack of overwhelming issues in the election and also the fact that the Opposition BJP and the AGP are not fighting the polls unitedly. Rajib Barman, an NGO activist, said, “This election is devoid of any major issue having an appeal across the State, it is being fought on local issues. So the anti-incumbency factor is not that strong. Though corruption is a factor, the problem is that the AGP-led Opposition is considered equally corrupt.”

Hrishikesh Goswami, another observer of the Assam situation, reflected, “It’s not that there are no issues, but most parties have lost the moral authority to take these up because of their record.”

In other words, the people are left with few options. Gokul Bhagabati, a research scholar, stated, “Because there is no formal arrangement or alliance among the Opposition parties, these parties may end up damaging each other’s prospects and help the Congress in many constituencies.” He was, of course, referring to the AGP and BJP not contesting as allies.

The real advantage for the Congress in Assam is that it has a loyal vote bank that it has developed over the decades. The prospect of the Opposition parties lies in somehow making an impact on these voters.

Jitul Barua, a student of political science from Sivasagar district, remarked, “Though the common people want to give the BJP a chance, a kind of minority veto seems the biggest obstacle. This is making the ruling Congress tremendously complacent and arrogant.”

In the first phase, what is also evident is that Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) has little presence in the Brahmaputra valley. This is because of the large presence of local Muslim voters who, unlike “illegal migrants”, do not form the outfit’s support base.

The Congress campaign was led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi and Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, among others, who batted for Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi by highlighting his “achievements” during the last 10 years.

The BJP put in an aggressive campaign with almost all senior national leaders — including former Deputy Prime Minister lK Advani, party president Nitin Gadkari, leaders of Opposition in lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley, former party chief M Venkaiah Naidu, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and Jharkhand Chief Minister Arjun Munda — coming to the State.

On the other hand, the AGP’s campaign was muted, with party president Chandramohan Patowary and former Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta pitching in for candidates in the party’s strongholds.