As election date draws near, the mood of the people in Assam is changing. The clear advantage the ruling Congress enjoyed until a few days ago in the constituencies going to polls on April 4 appears to have weakened with the offensive launched by the Asom Gana Parishad and the BJP.

The first phase of elections will held in 62 constituencies out of a total of 126 seats in the Assembly. Among these are the 15 constituencies under the Barak valley, five from the two hill districts, 28 constituencies from upper Assam — starting from Golaghat district up to Dibrugarh and Tinsukia — and 14 from north Assam — north bank districts in the upper Assam — Sonitpur to Dhemaji districts.

Upper Assam has always been a traditional stronghold of the Congress. But this time the ruling party is facing a tough battle from the Opposition. For several years in the past, the contest was mostly between the Congress and the AGP.

But the emergence of the BJP in Assam in the last few years, particularly in Upper Assam, has turned the contest into a triangular one in many areas. The triangular contest, the factor of large-scale dissidence —- not a single party is free of it —- and other smaller parties have made the election scene murky.

A Congress party worker in Dibrugarh, tremendously upset over the distribution of party tickets, said, “We cannot say anything about the results at the moment. There is tremendous confusion. We do not know whose dissidence helps whom.”

Upset over the failure of the BJP and the AGP to strike a pre-poll alliance, a local resident remarked, “It is a ridiculous situation. The BJP and the AGP are now more interested in cutting each other’s votes rather than eroding the base of the Congress — which is the bigger evil.”

Though the Congress holds most of 14 constituencies of the north bank districts of Upper Assam (Sonitpur, lakhimpur and Dhemaji), there is little chance that it will retain them all. Corruption, large-scale dissidence and intra-party rivalry, the issue of big dams, and the complete lack of development in this part, all these create the ideal conditions for upsetting the ruling party.

The AGP at the moment holds only two seats in this region, but an increase in its tally appears likely. The party is well positioned to retain its current constituencies of Tezpur and Chatia, and has also made advances in lakhimpur and Dhemaji constituencies. Tezpur has been the constituency of one of the biggest leaders of AGP, Brindabon Goswami, whose victory this time seems certain.

Among the nine constituencies that the Congress currently holds, it is only in three —- Gohpur, Naoboicha and Barchalla —- where the Congress is almost sure of victory, despite some dissidence activity. On the other hand, the Congress chances in Dhakuakhana and Biswanath, both represented by incumbent Cabinet Ministers, are uncertain.

Besides this, the Congress is locked in a tough fight with the AGP in Bihpuria, Biswanath and Dhekiajuli, where the chances for both are even. The Congress also has to handle a resurgent BJP in Rangapara. In Bihali, though the Congress is trying its level best to defeat State BJP president Ranjit Dutta, the latter is the favourite to win.

In the south bank of upper Assam, the election scenario has been changing with every passing day. The most important feature of this election has been the rise of the BJP in a very strong fashion, especially after the joining of former AASU and AGP leader Sarbananda Sonowal. Another big development in this part has been the resentment expressed by certain sections of the tea tribe population regarding a comment by Congress MP Dip Gogoi, brother of Congress Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, that the tea tribes of Assam were “foreigners”. This can take a certain section of tea tribe votes away from the Congress. Remember, tea tribes have always been one of the strongest and most loyal support bases of the Congress in Assam.

“Throughout my entire life, I have been a Congress supporter and never asked for anything. But they should at least not say such a thing after getting support for such a long period. Our people don’t deserve this treatment,” a young graduate said.

Among the seven Assembly constituencies in Dibrugarh district, the Congress seems be in a better position in Moran and lahowal constituencies, and the BJP in Duliajan. In the Dibrugarh constituency which is currently held by the BJP, a tough fight is expected between the party and the rival Congress. In the rest of the three constituencies of Tingkhong, Chabua and Naharkatia, a close battle is on the cards among the three major political forces.

In the five constituencies of Tinsukia district, the same trend prevails. In the Digboi constituency, though there will be competition among the three major parties, the Congress seems to be in a better position as the BJP and the AGP are threatening each other’s votes. Important tussles are also lined up in Tinsukia and Margherita constituencies. Both these fights are supposed to be Congress versus BJP encounters, but the AGP can also spin a surprise.

Margherita is the high voltage encounter that everybody is talking about. Here, a Congress high-profile Minister and a Chief Minister hopeful, Pradyut Bordoloi, faces one of the young and most promising future leaders of the tea tribe community and BJP member Kamakhya Tasa. People, this correspondent spoke to, almost in one voice said Bordoloi could be in for a shock defeat.