As the State prepares for the last phase of Assembly election in Assam on Monday, Kokrajhar — the Bodo heartland — has become the talking point. The Bodoland Peoples Front (BPF), which is led by Hagrama Mohilary — the main coalition partner in the outgoing Tarun Gogoi Government — has 11 seats in the outgoing Assembly from the area under the Bodoland Territorial Council jurisdiction, called the Bodoland Territorial Area Districts (BTAD). It is likely to be the kingmaker again. Already it has expressed its openness to a post-poll alliance with either the Congress or the Asom Gana Parishad.
The BTAD comprises four districts of lower Assam: Kokrajhar, Baska, Udalguri and Chirang, and has a total of 12 Assembly constituencies. The main players of the election in the area are — BPF, the Bodoland People’s Progressive Front (BPPF) led by Rabiram Narzary, Congress and to a small extent AGP. But it is the BPF which is the ultimate favourite here. In all the 12 constituencies of the four districts in the area, the fight is between the BPF and one of the other parties. It is widely believed that the alliance of the BPF with the Congress at Dispur has in a way threatened to dilute the Congress base in the region which is cited as one of the main reasons for the Congress high command to decide in favour of fighting the elections alone in the BTC region.
Among the three constituencies of the Kokrajhar district — Gossaigaon, Kokrajhar East and Kokrajhar West — in the first one, the contest will be between the BPF and the Congress while in the latter two, it’s between the BPF and the BPPF. Of these three, the BPF is in a very good position to win in both Gossaigaon and Kokrajhar East, but it certainly faces a very close contest in the last one. “The BPPF has some base in Kokrajhar district. It will be a keenly contested fight in Kokrajhar West between the BPF and BPPF. But in Gossaigaon and Kokrajhar East, BPF is very strong,” two students tell this correspondent.
In the Chirang district’s two constituencies — Sidli and Bijni — though the contest is expected between the BPF and the Congress, the BPF doesn’t seem to have much problem in winning here. In Baska district which has three constituencies: Tamulpur, Barama and Chapaguri, a triangular and tough fight between the BPF, Congress and AGP seems to be on the cards in Tamulpur and Barama and the results of which can go in favour of any party. The BPF is almost sure to win in Chapaguri. “All the candidates of these three parties are strong in Tamulpur and Barama. So it can go in anybody’s way. But if the BPF is able to unite the Bodo votes, then it has a clear advantage,” says Jatindra Sarma of Tamulpur.
In the Udalguri district’s four constituencies — Panery, Udalguri, Majbat and Kalaigaon — Panery seems to witness a contest between the BPF and Congress, and Udalguri is set for a triangular contest between the BPF, Congress and the UDPF, another regional party in this area. In both these two constituencies also the BPF seems to be favourably placed. In the rest two constituencies of Majbat and Kalaigaon, the BPF is facing the Congress in a tight contest in the former and faces the AGP in another close encounter in the latter and the chances in both the places is said to be 50-50. “In our district, the BPF stands in a good position in Panery and Udalguri, but it faces a tough battle in the other two constituencies where it has to do real hard work to win,” says Sailen Das of Udalguri district.
The party (BPF) is also in a strong position in two other constituencies outside the BTC area, namely Gauripur and Bhabanipur. “The BPF finds itself in a very good position to win in Bhabanipur due to the messy conditions of the Opposition parties,” Sanjib Deka of Bhabanipur says. Further, it is also in a strong position to give a tough fight to both the Congress and CPI(M) in Rangiya and it won’t be a surprise if it wins.
