The Sivasagar and the Jorhat districts, former seats of the mighty Ahom dynasty that ruled over Assam for almost 600 years, together form the Ahom heartland. And so, the tone of politics of the State to a large extent is decided by the equations of these two districts. While the Congress is firmly positioned in the Sivasagar district, the Asom Gana Parishad is better placed in the constituencies of Golaghat district.

The Congress has always had a strong base among the community, and the last two Congress Chief Ministers in the past three decades happen to be stalwarts representing the Ahom community, namely the late Hiteswar Saikia and present Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. Both represent one or the other of the two districts. There is a sizeable number of the tribals and tea tribes also. The two districts also hold a big number of the upper caste communities, especially in Jorhat. Mind it, the upper caste and the Ahom communities of these two districts form some of the most influential power blocs in this part of the country.

Entering the Sivasagar district from the side of the Dibrugarh, we reach Thowra — the constituency of the Surrendered UlFA (SUlFA) activist — Jayanta Hazarika alias Kushal Duwari. One of the most controversial SUlFA leaders at one time, he seems well-placed to retain the constituency, says Digonto Saikia, a resident of the Sivasagar district. It shows the level of political deterioration in this part.

“Among the rest of the five constituencies, in four the real fight is expected between the ruling Congress and the main Opposition party AGP,” says Bhaskar Phukan, an AASU activist whom this correspondent met in Sivasagar town. According to him, the Congress has a favourable position in the Sonari constituency, but in the remaining three (Amguri, Mahmara and Sivasagar) it can go anybody’s way.

In Nazira, the constituency of late Saikia, the main fight is between the Congress and the CPI, where Congress candidate Debabrata Saikia is the son of the late former Chief Minister. Bhaskar’s analysis is backed by a few other people that one talked to. The local newspapers have also predicted it the same way.

But the talk of the election in this part is the Amguri constituency, where two very senior leaders of the AGP and the Congress, who both held the Cabinet portfolio of the Transport Ministry, are facing each other in a high voltage contest. But the Congress leader is facing high dissidence and intra-party power struggle within the State leadership.

It becomes clear that the contest in the district seems mainly a two-sided battle between the Congress and the AGP, with the BJP not a major factor here. “Though the BJP has fielded their candidates here, it has still not emerged as a significant player in the politics of the area. So the fight will be confined mainly to the Congress and the AGP,” asserts Biswajit Bhuyan, another youth who has observed the run-up to the elections very closely.

We get a first hand account of this two-pronged battle while driving to Jorhat district through Sivasagar as we see huge processions and meetings of both the parties. Jorhat presents a different picture. Being the home district of the current Chief Minister for the last one decade, it has developed an even stronger base for the ruling party. Confirms Ramen Dutta, a local, “Though there is a very strong feeling of anti-incumbency due to poor governance, corruption and ‘Congressisation’ of the Government schemes and programmes in the district in the last one decade, the ruling party still holds ground due to the weakness or the lack of an effective Opposition.”

Among the Assembly constituencies of the district, some interesting news is coming from Mariani where the contest is predicted between the Congress and the Trinamool Congress (TMC), with the latter having a better chance. The Titabar constituency, with the Chief Minister as the candidate, is already a lost cause for the Opposition. “In the Jorhat and Teok constituencies also, the ruling party seems advancing in terms of electoral prospects, mainly because of the lack of aggression and organisational mess on the part of the entire Opposition,” views Dutta.

The only constituency in which AGP is in a favourable position is Dergaon which it is currently holding. I also come to know that in Majuli, Ganashakti supported by AGP is in a very good position. I talked to some other people in the area and almost all of them sticks to the view of a Congress advantage in the district.

From the main town, it takes some time to reach Titabar. It is actually a one-man show at Titabar, that man being the current Chief Minister. There is little activity on the part of the Opposition in the area. Almost every person one talks to here is unanimous that the strongman is already a winner. But many are much more interested in talking about Gaurav Gogoi, Tarun Gogoi’s son who is campaigning hard for his father. Is he being groomed for an immediate future role in the political arena as his father is getting older, is a million dollar question.

But ask about the lack of proper development and the allegations of corruption in the area, very few people want to say anything publicly, though there is an obvious dissatisfaction. Very few people in the North-East want to say anything against the authorities and their cronies as there are few safeguards for them. Off the record, many say that, of the huge developmental money that has come to the constituency an overwhelming chunk has been consistently confiscated by people and agents close to the Chief Minister and Government officials of the area.

leaving Jorhat towards Guwahati, one reaches Golaghat district. Here, the Opposition AGP stands a good chance compared to the Congress. The main fight throughout the district is between the Congress and the AGP. Allegations of corruption and non-development have created a big wave of anti-incumbency in the district. Both the local media and public opinion believe that in all the constituencies of the Golaghat district — Bokakhat, Sarupathar, Golaghat and Khumtai — a stiff fight can be expected mainly between the ruling party and the AGP.

Pradip Bora, a resident of the Golaghat district says, “The corruption charges against the Congress Ministers have clearly created a negative attitude towards the ruling party. Plus, Golaghat also has a good base of Krikhok Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS) who has launched a campaign against Congress because of its corruption is also noteworthy. But how much this actually gets reflected on the ground and harm Congress or help the Opposition can only be said after the election.”