Republicans’ recent stumbles in Congress highlight difficult road

A roughly $70 billion bill to fund immigration enforcement through the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term was supposed to be an easy lift for Republicans.

But progress stalled over concerns about the inclusion of White House ballroom security funding in the package and the creation of a $1.8 billion fund to finance claims of government mistreatment. The stumble has not only delayed action on a top GOP priority but also is raising questions about other parts of the party’s legislative agenda, including whether Republicans can enact another catchall, party-line bill referred to in Washington parlance as “Reconciliation 3.0.”

Republicans have spent recent weeks laying the groundwork for such a bill, which they hope will serve as a final sales pitch to voters going into the mid-terms.

Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, both of Louisiana, have been meeting with committee and caucus chairs to screen for proposals that have strong buy-in from the rank and file. They are aiming to follow up on last summer’s big tax and spending cuts bill with a measure that would increase Pentagon spending by hundreds of billions of dollars and would include cuts elsewhere to help pay for it, which they are couching as tackling government waste and fraud.

It’s a high-stakes gambit in an election year. Success will reinforce the GOP’s message of being able to deliver on legislative priorities. Failure will underscore some of the Republican fractures under Trump that could leave voters seeking an alternative.

Here’s a look at the coming debate as Republicans hope to pass a bill before leaving for their August recess.

House Republicans sound confident

Johnson navigated the House GOP’s slim majority in passing Trump’s tax and spending cuts bill last summer. The vote was 218-214. At the time, Republicans could afford to lose three votes from within their ranks. They lost just two.

They’ll have a thin margin of error again, but Johnson said he’s even more confident of success this time around.

“It will be just as beautiful, but not as big, so it’ll have less provisions and less things to get everybody to yes on,” he said.

Rep Jodey Arrington, chairman of the House Budget Committee, said Republicans are just as motivated as they were last year on the tax cuts bill.

“This one, I think you’ll have potentially money to support our troops in conflict,” said Arrington, of Texas. “I can’t imagine a Republican not wanting to support our troops and military community in a time of conflict.”

The Trump administration has called on Republicans to provide USD 350 billion to the defence through a reconciliation bill.

But Rep. Brendan Boyle, the lead Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said Republicans will have a more difficult path than they did with Trump’s big tax and spending cuts bill.

“I think it will be for a couple of reasons. First is the president’s approval rating. He was at a much higher level a year ago than he is right now,” said Boyle, of Pennsylvania. “Number 2, we are much closer to the November mid-term elections. So, if you’re one of a dozen or a couple dozen House Republicans who are really vulnerable in a swing district, you have to think even more carefully about voting for something that has even more health care cuts in it.”

The tax cuts bill that passed last summer reduced spending on Medicaid by more than USD 900 billion over a decade. It also reduced spending on nutrition assistance by about USD 187 billion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Caution in the Senate

Senate Majority Leader John Thune called a third reconciliation bill to get around the filibuster a “potential option,” hardly a ringing endorsement.

“We haven’t made any commitments on that, but we’re hearing people out,” said Thune, of South Dakota.

Sen Thom Tillis of North Carolina said lawmakers should know what will be in the bill before the legislative process begins. That way, it’s less likely to unravel.

“If it just becomes another exercise where you’re not really sure what’s going to be the end product, then I think it’s a mistake even to pursue it,” Tillis said. “We ought to be smart about it if we do a third one, but it is kind of a moonshot.”

Sen Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said she worried about the strategy.

“A third reconciliation may or may not happen. I’m just being direct,” she said.

Little time and fractured relations

The House is expected to be in session for about 24 more days before it breaks for its August recess. That leaves little time to pass a budget blueprint in both chambers, which is the first hurdle for pursuing party-line tax and spending bills. Committees would also have to wrap up their work advancing their portions of the legislation.

Another hurdle could be Trump’s treatment of current senators whose votes he will need for any package to become law. Trump endorsed opponents of two senators who faced stiff primary challenges and eventually lost - Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas.

Cassidy has already shown more willingness to buck the president. Fresh off his primary loss, he voted last week to advance a bill that seeks to force Trump to withdraw from hostilities with Iran.

What could make it into the bill

Lawmakers said they could tweak and resurrect some proposals that did not pass muster with the Senate parliamentarian for inclusion in last year’s reconciliation bill. For example, Republicans tried to prevent states from providing Medicaid coverage for immigrants who are in the US illegally.

Rep August Pfluger of Texas, chairman of the Republican Study Committee, said the bill should rest on three pillars, making the country more affordable and secure while reducing fraud.

Among the group’s recommendations is a proposal to eliminate the capital gains tax on the sale of homes to first-time home buyers, which they say would incentivise the market, and a proposal to impose a 5% tax on funds sent by non-citizens back to their home countries.

Arrington said he would also like to tighten the rules for the earned income tax credit, a program that increases the financial reward for working but that also has a high rate of improper payments. He also called for prohibiting immigrants who are in the US illegally from living in housing units financed by a housing tax credit paid to developers who construct and rehab affordable housing for renters.

“There’s a lot more work to be done to build on what we did in the first one with Medicaid and SNAP (nutrition assistance), with respect to fraud,” Arrington said.