Rajya Sabha elections for 26 seats on June 18: EC

In the upcoming biennial elections for 26 Rajya Sabha seats in 12 States on June 18, the NDA is likely to get 17 seats, while the Congress will get five, the JMM two and the TVK one. The NDA currently has 149 MPs in the upper house, while the Opposition has 78 and non-aligned regional parties have 17 MPs in the 244-member house.

The Election Commission (EC) on Friday announced elections for 26 Rajya Sabha seats on June 18 following the retirements of incumbents, including former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, party leader Digvijaya Singh, and two Union Ministers, Ravneet Singh and George Kurian.

The Rajya Sabha elections will be held in four seats each in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka, three seats each in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, two seats in Jharkhand and one seat each in Manipur, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram. Besides, one seat each in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu will also go to the polls on June 18. The last date for filing of nominations is June 8.

In a statement, the EC said the elections for the Rajya Sabha seats will be held in 10 States where 24 incumbents are retiring on different dates beginning June 21 to July 19. Of the total 26 seats where elections are being held, the NDA currently has 18, and the Congress four, while one seat is with the JMM and three are with the YSRCP.

In a separate notification, the EC also announced by-elections to fill the vacancies created by the NCP’s Sunetra Pawar in Maharashtra and the AIADMK’s C Ve Shanmugam in Tamil Nadu following their resignations after they were elected to the State Assemblies.

While the NDA is set to bag Pawar’s seat, going by its strength in the State Assembly, the TVK is likely to get the lone Rajya Sabha seat from Tamil Nadu, going for a bypoll. The tenure of Pawar’s seat will be till July 4, 2028, while that for the Tamil Nadu seat will be till June 29, 2028.

In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP will win all four States for the Council of States. Similarly, in Gujarat, the BJP is likely to win all four seats, grabbing the seat vacated by Congress Shaktisinh Gohil. At present, the BJP has three MPs - RH Mokariya, Narhari Amin and Ramila Becharbhai Bara.

In Jharkhand, the JMM-Congress alliance is likely to win both the seats, but the BJP, which has 21 seats of its own, may try to bag one seat with the help of cross-voting by four Opposition members.

If MLAs vote according to party lines, the NDA is likely to increase its tally from 15 to 17, while the Opposition’s tally may rise from five to seven. YSR Congress is likely to lose all three of its seats. This election could also see the Congress losing its representation from Gujarat, where the BJP decimated it in the last polls.

In Karnataka, the BJP has two members (Narayana Koragappa and Iranna Kadadi) and its ally JD(S), one, while the Congress has one. The Congress is likely to gain one seat in this election owing to its numerical advantage in the Assembly, and with Kharge’s re-nomination being a foregone conclusion, all eyes are on who would be the second candidate. Gowda is also likely to get a renomination with BJP support.

In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the Congress will get one seat each, while the BJP will win two seats in each of the States, going by their current numbers. In Karnataka, the Congress will win three seats, and the BJP will get only one seat.

Among those who are retiring from the Rajya Sabha are Gowda, Congress president Kharge (both from Karnataka), Union ministers Ravneet Singh (Rajasthan) and George Kurian (Madhya Pradesh), former chief minister Digvijay Singh, and Congress leader Shaktisinh Gohil.

Besides Ravneet Singh, the members whose tenure is ending in Rajasthan are Neeraj Dangi of the Congress and Rajendra Gehlot of the BJP.

Rajasthan has a total of 10 Rajya Sabha seats. The BJP and the Congress currently have five members each. Given the present strength of parties in the 200-member Rajasthan Assembly, the BJP is expected to win two of the three seats, while the Congress is likely to secure one. The BJP has 118 MLAs in the Assembly, while the Congress has 67 members. The BSP has two MLAs, the Bharat Adivasi Party has four, the Rashtriya Lok Dal has one, and Independents have eight.

One each seat in Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Mizoram are also going to polls on June 18. The BJP is slated to retain the seats of Maharaja Sanajaoba Leishemba in Manipur and Nabam Rebia’s in Arunachal Pradesh. The NPP is likely to retain Wanweiroy Kharlukhi’s seat in Meghalaya, while in Mizoram, the MNF (K Vanlalvena) may lose its seat to the ruling ZPM.