‘Lotto’ to play for in the jackpot
A recent news item, like so many in the past, shocked readers as a 69-year-old woman from Michigan (the US) won more than a million dollars’ Lotto 47 jackpot. The overjoyed winner immediately woke up her husband, and said, “I think I just won the lottery. We got my ticket, and looked it over, and that is when I knew I really had just won.” She told the lottery officials that now they can retire, as they have financial security. While it seems a bit sad, despite the happiness, that it takes a lottery for a near-septuagenarian to retire, even in America, what is more intriguing is how she knew she won without checking the ticket.
The reason was simple. She had bet on the same set of numbers, 02, 16, 18, 19, 26, and 42, for years. Hence, when she saw the winning set of numbers, she recognised them. It took her tens of thousands of days to beat the nearly 1:11 million odds in this specific jackpot. According to media reports, as they tend to hype after unexpected lottery wins, “The woman’s consistent play, and dedication to her chosen numbers paid off.” In effect, her patience was finally rewarded. Now, she could relax with her husband, and enjoy the rest of their lives.
Halfway round the world, in Sharjah, the Middle East, a pickup driver won another jackpot worth millions of dirhams because he opted for a similar strategy. He did not bet on the same numbers, but he diligently bought a raffle ticket every month for 15 years. In this case, the patience and dedication paid off after the purchase of 180 tickets. He was on the road when he received the “life-changing call” about the win. Although he will share the amount with three others, he will receive four million dirhams, or little less than INR 10 crore.
For most betters, especially the unsavvy and unintelligent ones, there are two lessons. Bet on the same numbers, or buy a ticket regularly without fail, and you increase the chances of winning. In fact, there is a near 100 per cent likelihood of a win with this dual-linked strategy. Indeed, many bettors follow this strategy, like those who bet on the same number in a multiple dice throw, or the roulette table, and those who buy a lottery ticket every day since it is cheap. It is a habit, and they sense that like all good habits, it will pay off.
However, there is an inherent flaw in the habit. If you begin with the odds that the Florida-based woman did, nearly 1:11 million, betting on the same numbers does not decrease the odds over the days, months, and years. It is not that a loss one day, incrementally reduces it the next, and next, until the odds become manageable, and the likelihood of a win increases to, say, 1:1 million, or even less. Each day, Lotto 47 or similar jackpot is held, the odds remain the same. Nothing happens to them, even if you bet on 10 sets of the same numbers every day.
The reason, yet again, is simple. Each day’s jackpot is a unique event. There is no connection between today, tomorrow, or yesterday, as far as the odds are concerned, even if you play every day. The odds in Lotto 47’s case remain nearly 1:11 million every day. The machine picks up a random set of numbers every day, and it does not matter whether you bet yesterday, or for the last 20 years, or 100 years. The odds of landing a specific six-digit set remains 1:11 million. Hence, the win by the Florida woman had nothing to do with dedication or patience.
Similar rules apply to buying a ticket every day. The odds do not come down because you have bought the ticket 1,000 times, or 10,000 times. The winning number is randomly decided each day, and it has nothing to do with what happened yesterday, or what will happen tomorrow. Of course, this is true of games and lotteries, which have huge stakes, but even larger odds. In Lotto 47, the woman won a million dollars but played against odds of nearly 11 million. It is only when the odds are extremely low that dedication and patience may pay off.
Consider the game of cricket, where a bettor bets on India’s win in each match that India plays. Since the odds here are extremely low, 50 per cent, or one in two, consistently betting on India will ensure some sure wins. In the beginning, the win ratio may not be one in two, but maybe one in 100, as each coin can land a ‘heads’ for 100 times in a row. But, over time, over 1,000 of matches, or tens of thousands of coin tosses, the ratio will settle at around one to two. Indeed, a cricket bettor, over 10-15-20 years, can expect to call it right half the time.
According to a probability-investment website, “Of course, someone has to win the jackpot. But do not let that certainty cloud your judgment. The rules of probability dictate you do not increase your lottery odds by playing more frequently (or betting on the same set of numbers for years), nor by betting larger amounts on each drawing. Each lottery ticket has the same odds of winning no matter how many you buy. Each one has an independent probability not altered by the frequency of plays, or how many other tickets you bought for the same drawing.”
In the same vein, consider the costs of the strategy of the pickup driver, or the Florida woman. The latter bet on the same set of numbers for years. Even if she paid $10 each time, and played 10,000 times, she spent $1,00,000 in the bargain. Her win amount was just a tad above this figure, which is not so great. The driver bought a raffle ticket every month for 15 years. In Dubai, the price is 1,000 AED (nearly $275) to win a million dollars. Our driver purchased 180 tickets in 15 years, or spent nearly $50,000. He won a million dollars, which is great. But as we maintain, and repeat, his win was not a given one. He was merely lucky. This is the gist of the lottery. It is pure, damn luck.
