India smartphone supplies to decline 10-12% in 2026: CMR

India smartphone shipments are expected to decline 10-12 per cent this year due to rise in memory cost driving up prices, market research firm CMR said in a report on Tuesday.

According to the CMR India Mobile Handset Market Review Report, the country’s smartphone market recorded a decline of 2 per cent in shipment on a year-on-year (YoY) basis due to a sharp rise in DRAM and NAND flash prices, which pushed up device costs and forced brands to increase pricing — leading price-sensitive consumers to defer upgrades.

CyberMedia Research (CMR), VP-Industry Research Group, Prabhu Ram said India’s 2026 smartphone market decline reflects a mix of structural cost pressures and cautious demand.

“Elevated DRAM and NAND prices have raised device costs, squeezing affordability in mass segments, while the premium end remains relatively insulated. At the same time, channel inventory corrections and more value-conscious consumers are extending upgrade cycles. Together, these factors are driving near-term volume pressure — especially in the affordable and value-for-money tiers — resulting in the projected 10-12 per cent decline in 2026,” he said.

Apple shipments in India increased 6 per cent YoY and 9 per cent market share during the reported quarter.

Surprisingly, Apple shipments were driven by demand for iPhone 16 during the reported quarter.

“Apple reached 9 per cent shipment share in Q1 2026. The iPhone 16 series contributed 53 per cent of volumes, while the newly launched iPhone 17 series captured 28 per cent share — a healthy upgrade cycle that validates the premium segment’s relative insulation from memory-driven pricing stress,” the report said.

The CyberMedia Research report estimates that shipment of only Vivo and Oppo grew in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 by 1 per cent and 12 per cent respectively, among top-five brands, while Samsung, Xiaomi and Realme recorded decline in supplies by 8 per cent, 7 per cent, and 12 per cent, respectively, on YoY basis.

Chinese smartphone brand Vivo led the overall smartphone market with 21 per cent share followed by Samsung with 17 per cent share, Oppo 14 per cent, Xiaomi 12 per cent and Realme 10 per cent.

CMR report estimates Transsion and OnePlus were the biggest losers with 30 per cent and 28 per cent decline in shipments on a YoY basis.

In the feature phone segment, Chinese brand itel Mobile led the market with 35 per cent share despite a steep decline in its shipments by 26 per cent. It was followed by Lava with 34 per cent share and HMD with 18 per cent share during the reported quarter.

Among chipset players, MediaTek led India’s smartphone chipset market with 48 per cent share. Qualcomm led the premium segment (above Rs 25,000) with 36 per cent market share.