Fitch raises India’s GDP growth projection for FY26 to 7.5%

Fitch Ratings on Friday raised India’s GDP growth forecast marginally to 7.5 per cent for current fiscal with domestic demand being the biggest growth driver this year.In December, Fitch had projected India’s GDP growth at 7.4 per cent for current fiscal.

For next fiscal (2026-27), Fitch has revised upwards its growth estimate to 6.7 per cent, from 6.4 per cent projected in December 2025.In its Global Economic Outlook — March 2026, Fitch projected world GDP growth at 2.6 per cent in 2026 on the assumption that the Iran war does not result in a larger or an enduring

spike in energy prices that pushes the annual 2026 oil price forecast above $70/barrel.“But a scenario where oil prices rise to USD 100 and stay there would be a significant adverse global supply shock,”  Fitch Ratings Chief Economist Brian Coulton said.

With regard to India, Fitch said there are tentative signs that real activity is slowing in January and February, but the economy remains resilient, and credit growth is still in double digits.Fitch expects growth to slow in first half of FY 2026-27; with rising inflation constraining real incomes and limiting consumer spending growth.

GDP growth slowed in the December quarter to 7.8 per cent YoY from 8.4 per cent in September quarter.“We estimate that for 2025-26 financial year (starting April 2025), growth will be 7.5 per cent, a marginal upward revision from December. Domestic demand is the biggest growth driver this year, with consumer spending and investment rising by (an estimated) 8.6 per cent and 6.9 per cent in the current fiscal year,” Fitch said.