Blasé Capital graduate  grudges

It is dismal times for the youngsters, especially fresh graduates, in America. Latest data shows that the unemployment rate for people with bachelor’s degrees rose to 2.8 per cent in September 2025, which is half a percentage point higher than the previous year. This means that nearly two million people aged 25 and older, who hold a college degree, have no jobs. They comprise a quarter of the unemployed, which is a level that has never been seen since the official records exist since 1992. Unemployment among young graduates, or those who are between 20 and 24 years, was more than nine per cent, or an increase of more than two per cent a year ago. Such a level is ascribed more to a period of recession, and not growth. The data clearly indicates a slowdown in white-collar jobs, and largely among those who spend four years to get graduate degrees.

Policy-makers, activists, and experts link these trends to the existing visa regime, especially the laws related to H-1B visas. According to many, H-1Bs allow younger Indians and Chinese to enter the American job market through the lottery system, which encourages low-skilled, less-experienced, and lowly-paid foreigners. This eliminates the local college-educated youngsters from entry-level, and mid-level positions. In some cases, the Americans need to compete with the lower salaries that the Indians earn, and are thus less enthusiastic about accepting the available jobs. Hence, there are plans to transform the H-1B regime into a merit-based, and salary-related one, which will only allow the entry of senior professionals. The hike in visa fees to $1,00,000 is aimed to achieve the same objective. Indian and American firms will possibly hesitate to apply for visas for lowly-paid workers, given the high visa fee. Recent reports indicate that Indian firms reduced their reliance on H-1Bs.

Foreign students form a second category that pushes Americans out of jobs, according to some experts. Most foreigners, who graduate from US colleges, especially higher studies, automatically find jobs under the H-1B visa scheme. They graduate seamlessly from being students to getting work visas, and most either stay back in the US for a few years, or forever as they later manage to get green cards, and citizenship. Thus, there are efforts to force foreign students to not seek jobs immediately after graduation, but to go back to their home nations, take a break, and then apply for H-1Bs, or other work visas. This will stall their automatic entry into the job market, and allow opportunities to the local youngsters. Of course, such changes will make the US education less appealing and popular for the foreigners, most of whom spend huge sums, even take education loans, as they eye American jobs at higher salaries.

Related to the above-mentioned sections are the spouses, and dependent children, of the H-1B visa holders, who manage to get visas to enter the US. Many of these spouses are young, and newly-married, with young children. They are reasonably educated, and find decent jobs. This too cuts into the job market for the locals. There are attempts to restrict jobs opportunities for the spouses, and even limit their entry into the US. Indirectly, this may force many Indians and Chinese, who believe in family links, to refuse H-1Bs, if their husbands, wives, and children cannot travel with them. In effect, it will limit the entry of foreigners in America. Estimates indicate that there are more than 50 million foreigners in the US, and constitute 15 per cent of the population. This may point to those who are not American citizens, and may not include others, who are foreign born, but have bagged their citizen papers legally.

For Americans, the good news is that the unemployment among the older Americans is four per cent, and the number has not changed much in the recent past. This implies that the more experienced locals manage to get jobs. However, this trend is laced with two caveats. First, according to a media report, only two sectors, healthcare and social assistance, and leisure and hospitality, added nearly 7,00,000 jobs this year. In the case of the other sectors, there was a small collective decline of 6,000 jobs. Thus, in most sectors, there are either layoff, or non-hiring moods. Hence, the opportunities are limited, and applicable to specific skills. Second, high-skill sectors such as computer systems design, scientific research, and management consulting have witnessed drops in headcounts. Thus, several professional and technical services are being taken over by technology, largely Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics.

AI is generally responsible for the lack of jobs for young Americans, apart from the impact of the current visa regime. In the recent past, tech firms have sacked thousands of people, mostly in the entry-level and mid-level positions. A policy-maker recently described the graduates’ position as one when they are caught in a “perfect storm.” From a period, when they were “swept into the labour market” as they graduated, they face one that sweeps them away from it. There are various bills by Republicans and Democrats to either make the visa regime more stringent, or open it further. But no one has a solution for the tech-led job disruptions that will continue.