Baking the silicon cake: Why India is learning to own the global kitchen

Most people interact with Artificial Intelligence through a narrow slit of AI models, which they use daily, butJensen Huang, Founder and CEO of NVIDIA,explains the AI world as a five — layered cake. At the base sits, energy as the foundation which is powered by minerals and rare earth metals, above it comes the chips and semiconductors, which is the most crucial and controversial layer, the third layer is the cloud infrastructure, the fourth houses the AI models ie the LLM(s) such as GPT-4 and Google Gemini and the top most layer is the application and implementation of these technologies. In today’s world, mastering all five layers is no longer a luxury- it has become a prerequisite for a stable and developed economic infrastructure.

In recent years, the Indian Government has been aggressively pursuing and emphasising the process of indigenisation of this stack through the Indian Semiconductor Mission (ISM), but the escalating tensions and ongoing wars in the Middle East and West Asian region have affected the global supply chain, which would affect India’s ‘Silicon Dream’ in both negative and positive ways.

After the change in regime in the United States of America and President Donald Trump’s slogan of “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), many countries, including India, have faced many trade restrictions and tariffs. These changes in policies have led to a rise in pre-existing tension among East Asian and Middle Eastern Countries. The ongoing wars in the region are affecting the ongoing ISM projects in multiple ways.

Some immediate impact of the war on the foundational and second layer of the AI stack (the energy and chips) includes the Helium gas Crisis, as Qatar produces nearly one-third of the world’s Helium, which is an essential gas used for chip cooling.

The supply of Helium gas is hindered due to the war and the blockage of the naval pathways. Another impact is the delay in the delivery of precision machinery for Indian fab labs. The war has added another 14 to 20 days of time tax on the delivery of these machines. The rerouting of vessels from the Strait of Hormuz to the Cape of Good Hope has created a severe logistical bottleneck.

This not only increases the cost of transportation but also delays and slows down the ongoing projects under ISM due to the shortage of machinery. Trump’s MAGA mission acts as a double-edged sword for the Indian semiconductor project.

This initially created financial hurdles and barriers, such as tariff pressure, which makes it expensive for Indian Chip manufacturers to enter and compete in the global market, but on the other hand, Trump’s administration is taking an aggressive stance to decouple the global market from Chinese chip manufacturers, which creates a wide range of opportunities for Indian startups and companies.

However, where geography presents hurdles, diplomacy is building bridges. In February 2026, India joined PAX-Silica, which marked a turning point in our nation’s technological

Self-reliance and development. PAX-Silica is a 12-nation coalition which includes the USA, Japan, Qatar, Australia, Israel and other technologically superior nations. By joining this trusted club, India no longer remains a random buyer but has become a strategic ally and business partner of nations such as Qatar that control the Helium supply of the world. This provides a buffer against the Helium shortage. Currently, India relies on China for nearly 93 per cent of its rare earth minerals imports, which is the foundation of the AI stack, but PAX-Silica has created an alternative chain supply, which would connect India with mineral-rich countries such as Australia and

processing experts such as Netherland, which will allow India to build its own second layer of the AI stack without Chinese interruption. This club will also provide us with access to advanced chip-making tools, which would accelerate the ISM by 5 to 10 years.

Ultimately, the convergence of West Asian Conflicts and the change in policies by the US administration serves as a definitive stress for India’s ‘silicon dream’. At the same time, the logistic bottleneck and short-term resource scarcity present immediate hurdles.

Still, they have also effectively accelerated ISM and strengthened India’s diplomatic relations across the globe by leveraging the diplomatic shield of PAX-Silica. India is eliminating the risks and threats in the supply chain and securing the foundational layer of the AI cake.

This geopolitical instability is not just a challenge,but also proves to be a catalyst for an ATMANIRBHAR infrastructure and ecosystem. India isn’t just trying to bake the cake; it’s learning to own the kitchen.

Author is a Researcher at Manipal University Jaipur; views are personal