Actual economic growth often exceeds Economic Survey’s projections

India’s economic growth has often exceeded the projections made in the Economic Survey, with 2025-26 expecting to record 7.4 per cent growth as against the 6.3-6.8 per cent projection made in the pre-Budget document.

The GDP growth in 2023-24 worked out to be 9.2 per cent as against the Survey’s projection of 6-6.8 per cent.

However, in 2024-25, economic growth was 6.5 per cent, in line with the projection of 6.5-7 per cent. The analysis indicates that the target was missed in 2022-23, when the actual economic growth was 7.6 per cent as against the Economic Survey’s projection of 8-8.5 per cent. In 2021-22, due to COVID, the Economic Survey did not make any projection, but the growth worked out to be 9.7 per cent, mainly because of the base effect. The growth in 2020-21 was negative at 5.8 per cent, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget on February 1. Presented just ahead of the Budget, the survey sets the tone for the Government’s economic thinking and offers a detailed snapshot of where India stands financially before new policy decisions are announced.