As the curtain falls on 2024, Uttar Pradesh stands as a microcosm of India’s shifting political winds. This year has been nothing short of a rollercoaster for the state, often described as the cradle of Indian politics. The BJP, once dominant, found itself grappling with a severe blow in the Lok Sabha elections, only to stage a dramatic recovery in the assembly by-elections. On the other side, the Samajwadi Party (SP) surged ahead during the national polls but faltered in maintaining its momentum when it came to the state elections, reflecting the ever-changing allegiances of the electorate.
The year began with Uttar Pradesh brimming with anticipation. It was the first general election after the completion of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, a project deeply intertwined with the BJP’s identity. Yet, the saffron party, which had been riding high on its Hindutva and development narratives, faced unexpected challenges. The Lok Sabha elections dealt the BJP a crushing defeat in the state, reducing its tally from 62 to 33 seats. This marked one of the party’s most significant electoral setbacks in recent years, with defeats in key constituencies like Ayodhya, Kannauj, and Amethi. The opposition INDIA alliance, spearheaded by the SP, capitalized on this vulnerability, securing 43 seats and emerging as the dominant force in the state.
The BJP’s losses in Ayodhya and Amethi were particularly symbolic. Ayodhya, considered the centerpiece of the BJP’s Hindutva agenda, rejected its candidate, Lallu Singh, in favor of SP’s Avdhesh Prasad. Voter dissatisfaction over local issues, coupled with resentment over the demolition of small temples during the construction of the Ram temple, played a significant role in this outcome. Similarly, in Amethi, Congress candidate Kishori Lal Sharma defeated BJP stalwart Smriti Irani by a significant margin, signaling a shift in public sentiment despite Irani’s high-profile campaigning.
However, just as questions began to surface about the BJP’s future in Uttar Pradesh, the party made a resounding comeback in the assembly by-elections held later in the year. Contests were held for nine seats, and the BJP won six, with ally RLD securing one. This recovery was driven by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s assertive leadership and a well-coordinated campaign strategy. Yogi’s slogan, “Batenge To Katenge” (If divided, they will be cut), struck a chord across caste divisions, consolidating Hindu votes and neutralizing the opposition’s efforts to build alliances based on caste arithmetic.
The Kundarki constituency, with its Muslim-majority population, became a symbol of the BJP’s ability to transcend traditional vote banks. BJP candidate Ramveer Singh campaigned aggressively in Muslim-dominated areas, presenting a message of inclusivity that resonated even in a fragmented field. This success, combined with victories in other critical seats, underscored the party’s adaptability and resilience.
For the SP, which had basked in the success of the Lok Sabha elections, the by-poll results were a reality check. Akhilesh Yadav’s strategy of focusing on a coalition of backward classes, Dalits, and minorities (PDA) had worked well in the national elections but failed to replicate the same impact in the state contests. The loss in Kundarki and other key seats highlighted the limitations of this approach against the BJP’s aggressive narrative and organizational strength.
Meanwhile, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) continued its downward spiral, unable to reclaim its traditional vote bank, which is increasingly gravitating towards newer players like Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party. Mayawati’s party appeared adrift, further diminishing its relevance in the state’s political landscape.
The turbulence of 2024 has set the stage for an intriguing contest in the years to come. Uttar Pradesh remains a battleground where strategies are tested, alliances are forged, and leaders are defined. For Yogi Adityanath, the year ended on a high note, solidifying his position as a Hindutva icon and a key player in the BJP’s national politics. For Akhilesh Yadav, the challenge lies in translating his Lok Sabha successes into sustained gains at the state level. As Uttar Pradesh heads towards the 2027 assembly elections, the lessons of this year will shape the strategies of all political players, ensuring that the state remains at the heart of India’s political drama.
